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2014 steel or rose concussion

experts speculate that many factors in the impact of price shocks of 2014, Chinas steel rose, the overall increase of about 2%, of which the annual average price of iron ore to the coast at around 120 U.S. dollars / ton, falling sharply less likely. Steel prices continue to ascend, stock appreciation will make iron and steel enterprises, benefit situation is further improved. Steady growth, adjusting structure and promoting reform was in 2014 Chinas three major focus of macroeconomic regulation and control. These three aspects of macro-control, complementary, different sides to promote Chinas economic growth stabilizes. Expected annual GDP growth rate reached or nearly 8 percent, higher than the 3013 growth levels. Under its influence, the national steel demand situation is better than last year, to stimulate new resources, especially large growth in imports, the price level is relatively stable throughout the year, not a sharp fall situation.
macro data boosted demand

Chinese steel demand, closely related to the overall economic situation in 2014, the steady rise of Chinas major economic indicators, improve internal and external economic environment, demand for steel and raw materials to boost self-evident.
first is to boost investment and construction requirements. Construction is expected in 2014 China will expand investment in various aspects of energy saving, urban and rural infrastructure, traffic, public services, residential and so on. Construction of the above aspects of large-scale, funding may reach hundreds of thousands of yuan, of which only the urban underground pipe network transformation, the projected investment in the country will be more than 350 billion yuan; environmental protection, the country will invest 2 trillion yuan carry water pollution governance, and to carry out large-scale investment in air pollution control actions, only Beijing would invest 1 trillion yuan; national urban rail transit construction investment will also have 4000000000000 much. Many projects have been completed for approval in 2014 will enter the construction of the building. In addition, in 2013 the national real estate sales and price go, "Day CD" and "ground" are frequent, the developer of funds better, and vigorously strengthen national housing construction, will also make investments in real estate development in 2014 speed. 2014 total fixed asset investment over 55 trillion yuan, the growth rate of nominal investment of 21%. Such a huge investment in construction, is bound to inspire a huge amount of demand for steel.
followed boost export demand. 2013, developed countries have amended preliminary tightening, the primary objective of government austerity turn stimulate growth and increase employment. Although the existence of the Feds exit QE expectations, but there is great uncertainty, even withdraw its small scale, quit a long time, but other countries will not follow up. Under its influence, the major developed economies will be stabilization and recovery, in which the euro will be away from recession, the U.S. economy continues to recover momentum, the Japanese economy will get rid of deflation; improving economic conditions in developed countries, is bound to add momentum to emerging countries, thus 2013 the overall situation in the world economy is better than last year, the natural demand for Chinas exports in 2014 to improve the environment. The second half of 2013 Chinas exports significantly accelerated, already shows the momentum. The speed of Chinas economy, in turn boost the global economy, resulting in a greater demand for overseas market for Chinese goods, so bullish cycle. Chinas direct exports in 2013 are expected to amount to less than 60 million tons of steel, to maintain a large-scale level. In addition, due to the indirect steel exports automobiles, ships, household appliances and other electrical products export driven, the Chinese new year, all of the amount of crude steel export volume discount will be close to or more than 100 million tons.
is once again boost manufacturing production needs. National fixed asset investment and exports both to the good, derived from a large number of urban and rural residents consumption, which makes 2014 was a great boost Chinas manufacturing industry, including building materials, construction machinery, logistics, equipment, household appliances and other manufacturing needs, increase its demand for raw materials. With the commencement of such energy saving investment is bound to promote efficient boilers, high efficiency motor applications to expand and develop regenerative combustion technology and equipment. In addition, the development of resource recycling technology and equipment, improve resource productivity and so on. All of these will contribute significantly to the rise of green energy equipment manufacturing industry, spawned more demand for steel and other metal needs. After the second half of 2013, Chinas manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose remained strong, which in October Chinese PMI manufacturing for 50 Coorong online side, picked up for several months, but also indicates that Chinas manufacturing situation in 2014 was better than last year. Manufacturing has always been an important consumption of steel, generally more than 5 percent of its total demand. New year, Chinas manufacturing situation has improved, domestic steel demand is bound to increase.
finally boost business needs to replenish stocks. Because "buy or not to buy down" market behavior, from 2012 steel and smelting national inventory of raw materials to the behavior continued until mid-2013, many companies below reasonable inventory of water, some steel companies when only enough inventory least one The amount of ore a week, or even less. According to Lange Steel network monitoring data, the end of July this year, the nations major markets steel inventories fell by 7.6%; According to the China Iron and Steel Association statistics, in August 2013, five major cities nationwide 22 varieties of steel inventories showed a continued downward trend , which in August steel inventories were down 7.76 percent, some of the key steel enterprises in charge of corporate sales position also smooth, steel stocks are not many. Into September and October months later, although the national steel stocks rebounded, but because people tend to be cautious on the market outlook, the stock will not increase much, still low by historical standards.
with market expectations change, confidence restoration and enhancement, prices bottoming out in 2014, the year the enterprise is bound to replenish inventory, increase in steel and smelting raw material inventory requirements. If prices continue to rise, the rally too fast, it will lead to lower inventory replenishment enterprise panic, leading to a further expansion of intermediate demand, supply and demand reversal short period of time.
also needed cause for concern is the extremely popular at home and abroad to implement the pre-loose monetary policy, released a huge amount of liquidity. These funds have not disappeared, but scattered in every corner of the market, waiting for the best timing. Macroeconomic indicators bottoming steady rise, the gradual recovery in consumer demand, market rise into the channel, will inevitably lead to a lot of speculation, resulting in a significant increase in demand for financial hype.
according to the total amount of Chinas crude steel demand in 2013 (including direct exports, the same below) estimates the size of 800 million tons, even in 2014 demand growth down to 5% of its total demand will reach 840 million tons, or even more .
supply demand expansion provides space

2014 expansion of Chinas demand for steel supply of resources to provide a larger space. According to preliminary estimates, in 2014 the National Statistics crude steel production will reach 820 million tons, an increase of about 5% over the previous year, taking into account the statistical production if not included, the actual crude steel production will be more likely to be close to 850 million tons, thus boost iron ore, coking coal and other production release. higher
Chinese iron ore, scrap and other raw materials imported smelting dependence, expanding domestic demand is bound to stimulate a corresponding increase in imports. With synchronous start to the domestic demand and the significant increase in restocking demand in the new year, Chinas iron ore, scrap, coking coal and other raw materials, import growth will be more apparent. Preliminary estimates, in 2014 the countrys iron ore imports rose by more than 8%.
In general, prices of steel and raw material prices affected mainly by the common needs of the real economy and monetary factors. It should be said that the above two factors, the real economic demand, consumer purchasing power increases, is the real foundation of steel prices running high, monetary factors fueled only on this basis only. With the active recovery and growth in 2014, such as domestic and international economy, particularly in manufacturing and housing investment in fixed assets, the real economy tends to strong demand will gradually increase in raw material prices for the steel and the dominant driving force, the Fed QE and other monetary exit stepwise relegated to secondary status, the consequent impact on the future market liquidity will be greatly diminished. It is precisely because of this, so some time, the international market for iron ore, oil, metals and other commodity prices does not care about the Feds exit QE expectations and the debt ceiling crisis in the United States, did not fall sharply, continuing relatively high, which New Zealand Exchange oil prices around $ 100 / barrel price fluctuations, iron ore prices and shipping index even shock upstream.
worth noting that, in the real economy, the demand for steel and raw material prices gradually become market support force, while easing the resulting "price premium" will continue to exist. The first is the pre-world governments, mainly Western countries government "rescue" the release of huge amounts of liquidity and did not recover, there are still all corners of the global market; followed by astronomical debt service, it must continue to rely on printing money . In these circumstances, even if the Feds exit during 2014 QE, estimated to be phased out, not rushed, to avoid the impact of the economic recovery and employment. Other developed countries, the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, are likely to continue monetary easing.
recent bipartisan compromise on raising the debt ceiling, in fact, mean that the U.S. government accumulated more debt means more money printing will eventually continue to release more liquidity to the market. So much so far failed to lead to super-currency prices rose, mainly because of weak demand in the world, people are doubts for the recovery of uncertainty and even fear. Thus, with the future needs of the real economy starts to restore market confidence, low dips profitable, these liquidity will come back, and gradually increase the smelting of metals and raw materials, energy and power, transportation costs and other goods and services, demand for financial attributes, namely demand for hedging and speculation. By then, the steel market shocks up by the previous single demand for power, into a common drive two requirements.
Moreover, the domestic environment pollution, which greatly restricted the sustainable economic development and urban and rural residents, improve the living environment, thus preventing pollution has become an important goal of macroeconomic regulation and control. Steel companies are expected in the new year will have a greater increase in environmental costs, while part of the pollution, excessive energy consumption and backward production capacity has been greatly inhibited, but also help to improve the supply and demand relationship.

专家推测,在多方面因素共同影响下,2014年中国钢材价格震荡扬升,总体涨幅在2%左右,其中铁矿石到岸全年平均价格在120美元/吨左右,大幅跌落的可能性较小.钢材价格继续扬升,将会使得钢铁企业库存升值,效益情况进一步获得改善.稳增长、调结构与促改革,是2014年中国宏观调控的三大着力点.上述三个方面宏观调控,相辅相成,从不同侧面推动中国经济增速企稳回升.预计全年GDP增速达到或者接近8%,高出3013年增长水平.受其影响,全国钢材需求状况好于上年,刺激新增资源,尤其是进口较多增长,全年价格水平相对稳定,不会出现大幅跌落局面.

宏观经济向好提振需求

中国钢材需求,与整体经济状况紧密相关,2014年中国主要经济指标的企稳回升,内外经济环境的改善,对于钢铁及原料需求的提振是不言而喻的.

首先是提振投资建设需求.预计2014年中国建设投资将会在节能环保、城乡基础设施、交通道路、民生服务、居民住宅等多个方面展开.上述几个方面的建设规模庞大,所需资金可能达到十数万亿元,其中仅城市地下管网改造,推算全国投资将超过3500亿元;环保方面,全国将投入2万亿元进行水污染治理,并大规模投资开展大气污染防治行动,仅北京市就要投入1万亿元;全国城市轨道交通建设投资也将有4万亿之多.许多项目已经完成审批,2014年将要进入施工建设.此外,2013年全国房地产销售量价齐升,“日光盘”与“地王”频现,开发商资金情况较好,以及国家大力加强安居工程建设,也将使得2014年房地产开发投资提速.预计2014年全社会固定资产投资超过55万亿元,名义投资增长率达到21%.如此规模巨大的投资建设,势必激发数量巨大的钢材需求.

其次是提振出口需求.2013年,发达国家相继修正前期紧缩政策,政府首要目标由紧缩开支转向刺激增长、增加就业.虽然存在美联储退出QE预期,但存在很大不确定性,即便退出,其规模很小,退出时间很长,而且其它国家均不会跟进.受其影响,主要发达国家经济也将企稳回升,其中欧元区将远离衰退,美国经济继续复苏态势,日本经济亦将摆脱通缩局面;发达国家经济状况好转,势必会为新兴国家增添动力,因此2013年世界经济整体状况好于上年,自然改善2014年中国出口需求环境.2013年下半年中国外贸出口明显提速,已经显示了这一势头.而中国经济提速,又将提振全球经济,产生境外市场对于中国商品的更大需求,如此利多循环.预计2013年中国钢材直接出口量将不少于6000万吨,保持较大规模水平.此外,由于汽车、船舶、家用电器等机电产品出口所带动的钢铁间接出口,中国新一年全部钢材出口量折算粗钢量将接近或者超过1亿吨.

再次是提振制造业生产需求.全国固定资产投资与出口的双双向好,派生出大量城乡居民消费,这就使得2014年中国制造业获得极大提振,包括建筑材料、工程机械、物流设备、家用电器等制造业需求,增加其原材料需求.比如随着节能环保投资的展开,势必推广高效锅炉,扩大高效电动机应用,发展蓄热式燃烧技术装备.除此之外,发展资源循环利用技术装备,提高资源产出率等.所有这些,都会显著推动环保节能装备制造行业崛起,催生更多的钢材需求等金属需求.2013年下半年后,中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)持续强劲扬升,其中10月中国PMI制造业保持50枯荣线上方,连续数月回升,也预示着2014年中国制造业形势明显好于上年.制造业历来是钢材的重要消费领域,一般占其总需求量的5成以上.新一年中国制造业形势明显好转,势必增加国内钢材需求.

最后是提振企业补充库存需求.因为“买涨不买落”的市场行为,从2012年开始的全国钢材及冶炼原料去库存行为一直持续到2013年年中,许多企业库存低于合理水,有些钢铁企业库存最少时仅够一个星期的矿石用量,甚至更少.据兰格钢铁网监测数据,今年7月末,全国主要市场钢材社会库存同比下降7.6%;另据中国钢铁工业协会统计,2013年8月,全国22个城市5大品种钢材社会库存呈继续下降趋势,其中8月份钢材社会库存环比下降7.76%,一些重点钢铁企业负责人也表态企业销售顺畅,钢材库存并不很多.进入9、10月月以后,虽然全国钢材库存有所回升,但因为人们对后市行情趋向谨慎,所以库存不会增加很多,依然处于历史较低水平.

随着市场预期转变,信心恢复与增强,价格触底回升,2014年内企业势必补充库存,增加钢材及冶炼原料库存需求.如果价格持续上涨,涨势过快,将会引发偏低库存企业的恐慌性补库,导致中间需求进一步膨胀,短时期逆转供求关系.

此外还需要引起关注的是,前期国内外普遍实施的极端宽松货币政策,释放了巨量流动性.这些资金并没有消失,而是散布于市场各个角落,等待最佳入市时机.宏观经济指标的筑底企稳回升,消费需求逐步恢复,市场行情进入上升通道,势必引发大量投机行为,导致金融性炒作需求显著增加.

按照2013年中国粗钢需求总量(含直接出口,下同)8亿吨规模测算,即便2014年需求增幅回落至5%,其需求总量也会达到8.4亿吨,甚至更多.

需求扩张提供供应空间

2014年中国需求扩张,为钢材资源供应提供了较大空间.据初步测算,2014年全国粗钢统计产量将达到8.2亿吨,比上年增长5%左右,如果考虑到未纳入统计的产量,实际粗钢产量将会更多,有可能接近8.5亿吨,从而拉动铁矿石、焦煤等产能释放.

中国铁矿石、废钢等冶炼原料的进口依赖性较高,国内需求的扩张势必拉动进口相应增长.随着向国内外需求的同步启动,以及补充库存需求的明显增加,新一年内中国铁矿石、废钢、炼焦煤等原材料进口增长将更为明显.初步测算,2014年全国铁矿石进口增幅超过8%.

一般而言,钢材及原材料价格行情主要受到实体经济需求与货币因素的共同影响.应该说,上述两项因素中,实体经济需求旺盛,消费者购买力增加,才是钢铁行情高位运行的真正基础,货币因素只是在此基础之上推波助澜而已.随着2014年国内外经济的复苏与增长,尤其是制造业与住房等固定资产投资的活跃,实体经济需求趋向旺盛,将逐步上升为钢材及原料行情的主导性推动力量,美联储退出QE等货币因素逐步退居次要地位,由此引发的未来市场流动性冲击将大为减弱.正是因为如此,所以一段时期以来,国际市场铁矿石、石油、金属等大宗商品价格并不理会美联储退出QE的预期与美国债务上限危机影响,并未大幅跌落,继续相对高位运行,其中纽交所石油价格围绕100美元/桶价位波动,铁矿石价格与海运指数甚至震荡上行.

值得注意的是,在实体经济需求逐步成为钢铁及原料价格行情支撑力量的同时,宽松货币所产生的“价格溢价”亦继续存在.首先是前期世界各国政府,主要是西方发达国家政府“救市”所释放的巨额流动性并没有收回,依然存在全球市场各个角落;其次是天文数字债务的还本付息,也必须继续依赖印钞.在这种情况之下,即便2014年内美联储退出QE,估计也将是逐步退出,不会操之过急,避免冲击经济复苏与就业.其它发达国家,欧元区、日本、英国等,有可能继续货币宽松政策.

最近美国国会两党就提高债务上限达成妥协,其实意味着美国政府更多债务累计,意味着最终还将印刷更多钞票,继续向市场释放更多流动性.如此之多的超发货币至今未能引起物价大涨,主要还是因为世界需求低迷,人们对于复苏不确定性的疑虑甚至恐惧.因此,随着今后实体经济需求启动,市场信心恢复,低价抄底有利可图,这些流动性将会卷土重来,逐步增加金属及冶炼原料、能源动力、运输费用等商品和服务的金融属性需求,即避险与炒作需求.届时,钢材行情的震荡向上,将由以往单一需求动力,转变为两项需求的共同驱动.

不仅如此,国内环境污染严重,极大制约了经济的可持续发展与城乡居民生活、生存环境的改善,因此防治污染已经成为宏观经济调控的重要目标.预计新一年内钢铁企业环保成本将有较多增加,同时,部分污染严重、耗能过多的落后产能受到很大抑制,也有利于改善供求关系.,2014 steel or rose concussion.