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2014 steel or rose concussion

experts speculate that many factors in the impact of price shocks of 2014, Chinas steel rose, the overall increase of about 2%, of which the annual average price of iron ore to the coast at around 120 U.S. dollars / ton, falling sharply less likely. Steel prices continue to ascend, stock appreciation will make iron and steel enterprises, benefit situation is further improved. Steady growth, adjusting structure and promoting reform was in 2014 Chinas three major focus of macroeconomic regulation and control. These three aspects of macro-control, complementary, different sides to promote Chinas economic growth stabilizes. Expected annual GDP growth rate reached or nearly 8 percent, higher than the 3013 growth levels. Under its influence, the national steel demand situation is better than last year, to stimulate new resources, especially large growth in imports, the price level is relatively stable throughout the year, not a sharp fall situation.
macro data boosted demand

Chinese steel demand, closely related to the overall economic situation in 2014, the steady rise of Chinas major economic indicators, improve internal and external economic environment, demand for steel and raw materials to boost self-evident.
first is to boost investment and construction requirements. Construction is expected in 2014 China will expand investment in various aspects of energy saving, urban and rural infrastructure, traffic, public services, residential and so on. Construction of the above aspects of large-scale, funding may reach hundreds of thousands of yuan, of which only the urban underground pipe network transformation, the projected investment in the country will be more than 350 billion yuan; environmental protection, the country will invest 2 trillion yuan carry water pollution governance, and to carry out large-scale investment in air pollution control actions, only Beijing would invest 1 trillion yuan; national urban rail transit construction investment will also have 4000000000000 much. Many projects have been completed for approval in 2014 will enter the construction of the building. In addition, in 2013 the national real estate sales and price go, "Day CD" and "ground" are frequent, the developer of funds better, and vigorously strengthen national housing construction, will also make investments in real estate development in 2014 speed. 2014 total fixed asset investment over 55 trillion yuan, the growth rate of nominal investment of 21%. Such a huge investment in construction, is bound to inspire a huge amount of demand for steel.
followed boost export demand. 2013, developed countries have amended preliminary tightening, the primary objective of government austerity turn stimulate growth and increase employment. Although the existence of the Feds exit QE expectations, but there is great uncertainty, even withdraw its small scale, quit a long time, but other countries will not follow up. Under its influence, the major developed economies will be stabilization and recovery, in which the euro will be away from recession, the U.S. economy continues to recover momentum, the Japanese economy will get rid of deflation; improving economic conditions in developed countries, is bound to add momentum to emerging countries, thus 2013 the overall situation in the world economy is better than last year, the natural demand for Chinas exports in 2014 to improve the environment. The second half of 2013 Chinas exports significantly accelerated, already shows the momentum. The speed of Chinas economy, in turn boost the global economy, resulting in a greater demand for overseas market for Chinese goods, so bullish cycle. Chinas direct exports in 2013 are expected to amount to less than 60 million tons of steel, to maintain a large-scale level. In addition, due to the indirect steel exports automobiles, ships, household appliances and other electrical products export driven, the Chinese new year, all of the amount of crude steel export volume discount will be close to or more than 100 million tons.
is once again boost manufacturing production needs. National fixed asset investment and exports both to the good, derived from a large number of urban and rural residents consumption, which makes 2014 was a great boost Chinas manufacturing industry, including building materials, construction machinery, logistics, equipment, household appliances and other manufacturing needs, increase its demand for raw materials. With the commencement of such energy saving investment is bound to promote efficient boilers, high efficiency motor applications to expand and develop regenerative combustion technology and equipment. In addition, the development of resource recycling technology and equipment, improve resource productivity and so on. All of these will contribute significantly to the rise of green energy equipment manufacturing industry, spawned more demand for steel and other metal needs. After the second half of 2013, Chinas manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose remained strong, which in October Chinese PMI manufacturing for 50 Coorong online side, picked up for several months, but also indicates that Chinas manufacturing situation in 2014 was better than last year. Manufacturing has always been an important consumption of steel, generally more than 5 percent of its total demand. New year, Chinas manufacturing situation has improved, domestic steel demand is bound to increase.
finally boost business needs to replenish stocks. Because "buy or not to buy down" market behavior, from 2012 steel and smelting national inventory of raw materials to the behavior continued until mid-2013, many companies below reasonable inventory of water, some steel companies when only enough inventory least one The amount of ore a week, or even less. According to Lange Steel network monitoring data, the end of July this year, the nations major markets steel inventories fell by 7.6%; According to the China Iron and Steel Association statistics, in August 2013, five major cities nationwide 22 varieties of steel inventories showed a continued downward trend , which in August steel inventories were down 7.76 percent, some of the key steel enterprises in charge of corporate sales position also smooth, steel stocks are not many. Into September and October months later, although the national steel stocks rebounded, but because people tend to be cautious on the market outlook, the stock will not increase much, still low by historical standards.
with market expectations change, confidence restoration and enhancement, prices bottoming out in 2014, the year the enterprise is bound to replenish inventory, increase in steel and smelting raw material inventory requirements. If prices continue to rise, the rally too fast, it will lead to lower inventory replenishment enterprise panic, leading to a further expansion of intermediate demand, supply and demand reversal short period of time.
also needed cause for concern is the extremely popular at home and abroad to implement the pre-loose monetary policy, released a huge amount of liquidity. These funds have not disappeared, but scattered in every corner of the market, waiting for the best timing. Macroeconomic indicators bottoming steady rise, the gradual recovery in consumer demand, market rise into the channel, will inevitably lead to a lot of speculation, resulting in a significant increase in demand for financial hype.
according to the total amount of Chinas crude steel demand in 2013 (including direct exports, the same below) estimates the size of 800 million tons, even in 2014 demand growth down to 5% of its total demand will reach 840 million tons, or even more .
supply demand expansion provides space

2014 expansion of Chinas demand for steel supply of resources to provide a larger space. According to preliminary estimates, in 2014 the National Statistics crude steel production will reach 820 million tons, an increase of about 5% over the previous year, taking into account the statistical production if not included, the actual crude steel production will be more likely to be close to 850 million tons, thus boost iron ore, coking coal and other production release. higher
Chinese iron ore, scrap and other raw materials imported smelting dependence, expanding domestic demand is bound to stimulate a corresponding increase in imports. With synchronous start to the domestic demand and the significant increase in restocking demand in the new year, Chinas iron ore, scrap, coking coal and other raw materials, import growth will be more apparent. Preliminary estimates, in 2014 the countrys iron ore imports rose by more than 8%.
In general, prices of steel and raw material prices affected mainly by the common needs of the real economy and monetary factors. It should be said that the above two factors, the real economic demand, consumer purchasing power increases, is the real foundation of steel prices running high, monetary factors fueled only on this basis only. With the active recovery and growth in 2014, such as domestic and international economy, particularly in manufacturing and housing investment in fixed assets, the real economy tends to strong demand will gradually increase in raw material prices for the steel and the dominant driving force, the Fed QE and other monetary exit stepwise relegated to secondary status, the consequent impact on the future market liquidity will be greatly diminished. It is precisely because of this, so some time, the international market for iron ore, oil, metals and other commodity prices does not care about the Feds exit QE expectations and the debt ceiling crisis in the United States, did not fall sharply, continuing relatively high, which New Zealand Exchange oil prices around $ 100 / barrel price fluctuations, iron ore prices and shipping index even shock upstream.
worth noting that, in the real economy, the demand for steel and raw material prices gradually become market support force, while easing the resulting "price premium" will continue to exist. The first is the pre-world governments, mainly Western countries government "rescue" the release of huge amounts of liquidity and did not recover, there are still all corners of the global market; followed by astronomical debt service, it must continue to rely on printing money . In these circumstances, even if the Feds exit during 2014 QE, estimated to be phased out, not rushed, to avoid the impact of the economic recovery and employment. Other developed countries, the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, are likely to continue monetary easing.
recent bipartisan compromise on raising the debt ceiling, in fact, mean that the U.S. government accumulated more debt means more money printing will eventually continue to release more liquidity to the market. So much so far failed to lead to super-currency prices rose, mainly because of weak demand in the world, people are doubts for the recovery of uncertainty and even fear. Thus, with the future needs of the real economy starts to restore market confidence, low dips profitable, these liquidity will come back, and gradually increase the smelting of metals and raw materials, energy and power, transportation costs and other goods and services, demand for financial attributes, namely demand for hedging and speculation. By then, the steel market shocks up by the previous single demand for power, into a common drive two requirements.
Moreover, the domestic environment pollution, which greatly restricted the sustainable economic development and urban and rural residents, improve the living environment, thus preventing pollution has become an important goal of macroeconomic regulation and control. Steel companies are expected in the new year will have a greater increase in environmental costs, while part of the pollution, excessive energy consumption and backward production capacity has been greatly inhibited, but also help to improve the supply and demand relationship.

















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