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2014 Annual Report of the steel industry investment strategy

Investment Highlights

From the industry perspective, the upstream iron ore two core issues facing the steel industry overcapacity in extrusion and gradual improvement. With the production of iron ore production capacity, we believe that 2014 was the turning point in the supply of iron ore, ore price will be under the central level.
insufficient supply is a core factor in ore prices upward. Global iron ore investment cycle lags behind the steel investment cycle, and the construction period is longer than steel construction period, resulting in the steel construction period will begin in a continuous shortage of iron ore supply status, the last five ore supply gap has always existed. From the beginning of the end of the four
13 new mine 168 million tons of new capacity to gradually put into the period, we add a conservative calculation in 2014 was about 130 million tons of ore supply, the corresponding additional 084 million tons of pig iron. We believe that the new capacity will not
suppliers to delay delivery of the so-called conspiracy. Mine the long investment cycle, high debt ratio of new mines and heavy asset characteristics lead to full production is the optimal choice. FMG new entrants to expand production capacity from 055 million tons to 155 million tons in 2014, corresponding to the cash cost per tonne by the 12-year high of 53 down to $ 33, in addition to the huge financial pressure on new mines also produced one of the reasons for its full load.
we projected in 2013 the steel industry capacity utilization increased by about 3-5 percentage points over 12 years, while in the environmental pressures and capacity constraints compression policy, production capacity fell sharply in 2014, within two years of watching the industry capacity utilization Continuing upward more determined.
according to Societe Generale for 14 years, 19% of fixed asset investment growth judgment under neutral assumptions we predict 2014 crude steel apparent consumption of 783 million tons, year on year growth of 6.7%, crude steel production of 828 million tons , year on year growth of 6.1%.
structural factors affecting the industry is gradually improving, especially iron ore supply and demand is improving, bringing industry profitability continued to improve. We think we can take an active interest in the industry better quality, higher dividend rate and had no history of its own mining company, focusing on recommended; addition, we are optimistic about the development of the oil and gas industry to bring investment opportunities related to pipeline companies, a key recommendation.
Risk: Mine production release schedule below our expectations


投资要点

从行业层面看,钢铁行业面临的两个核心问题上游铁矿石挤压和产能过剩在逐步改善.随着铁矿石新增产能投产,我们认为2014年是铁矿石供应的拐点年,矿价中枢会再下台阶.

供给不足是矿价上行的核心因素.全球铁矿石投资周期滞后于钢铁投资周期,且建设周期长于钢铁建设周期,导致在钢铁建设周期开始后铁矿石供给将处于持续紧缺状态,过去五年矿石供给缺口一直存在.

从13年底开始四大矿山新建1.68亿吨新产能逐步进入投放期,我们保守计算2014年其新增矿石供应量约1.3亿吨,对应新增生铁0.84亿吨.

我们认为新增产能不会因为供应商的所谓共谋而延缓投放.矿山投资周期长,新矿山的高负债率和重资产特性导致满产是其最优选择.新进入者FMG产能从0.55亿吨扩张到2014年的1.55亿吨,对应单吨现金成本由12年最高的53下降到33美元,此外新矿山巨大的资金压力也是其满负荷生产原因之一.

我们推算2013年钢铁行业产能利用率较12年上升约3-5个百分点,同时在环保压力以及产能压缩政策等约束下,2014年新增产能大幅下滑,两年内看行业产能利用率持续上行较为确定.

根据兴业对14年固定资产投资增速19%的判断,中性假设下我们预测2014年粗钢表观消费量为7.83亿吨,同比增速6.7%,粗钢产量为8.28亿吨,同比增速6.1%.

影响行业的结构性因素在逐步改善,尤其是铁矿石供需关系在好转,从而带来行业盈利持续改善.我们认为可以积极关注行业内质地较好、历史分红率较高且均没有自有矿的公司,重点推荐,;此外,我们看好油气行业发展带来的相关管道公司的投资机会,重点推荐.

风险:矿山产量释放进度低于我们预期,2014 Annual Report of the steel industry investment strategy Crazy Stone is no longer crazy.