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Your current location :Home > News > December 2013 analysis of the steel market price trend forec

December 2013 analysis of the steel market price trend forec

December 2013 analysis of the steel market price trend forecast,a market review analyzes November domestic steel market as a whole showed a rising trend shocks. Early, the Third Plenum bring policies to improve the expected pressure for market resources, iron ore, steel billets and other raw material prices continue to rise, futures prices higher volatility, higher boost domestic steel market as a whole. Mid, the Third Plenum of the steel industry brought to the closing is not a clear positive signal, futures weaker again, after a rise downstream procurement Bora cautious, thinly traded spot market, prices pulled back slightly in most regional markets. As of the 20th, the Shanghai market three rebar prices 3580-3660 yuan / ton, late last month rose 140-160 yuan / ton, Shandong market price 3600-3620 yuan / ton, late last month, up 70 yuan / ton; Shanghai market heavy-gauge hot rolled prices 3460-3480 yuan / ton, late last month rose 20 yuan / ton, Shandong market price 3490-3520 yuan / ton, late last month rose 10 yuan / ton; East China market board price 3420-3450 yuan / t the end of the month flat; East market

Second, the market trend forecasting

10 月份 steady macroeconomic data, inflation rose slightly, slightly improved industrial data, but the infrastructure and real estate investment is beginning to show signs of slowing down in recent months. October average daily production of 2.099 million tons of crude steel, post or rise slightly. Demand season approaching, steel destocking or will gradually end. Raw materials market steadily, strong efforts to support the cost of steel. Cautious on the outlook leading steel prices steady downward. As the weather gets colder downstream demand weakened, the pressure will increase steel orders. Third Plenum of the market next year is not to bring positive expectations, the market appears difficult to hoard goods to be up prices last year, is expected to close with the end of tight funding, the domestic steel market will consolidate weaker.
Third, the domestic steel market factors run:

1, stable domestic economic growth, stable macroeconomic policy tight. October total electricity consumption grew by 9.5%, the growth rate narrowed 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. October, sending the national rail freight rose 6.0 percent, the average daily traffic volume growth of 1.8%. October CPI rose 3.2%, PPI down 1.5% year on year; October RMB loans increased by 506.1 billion yuan, an increase of 700 million yuan, a decrease of 280.9 billion yuan; Show inflation rose slightly but still controlled the central bank to control credit, maintain a neutral monetary policy tight. Third Plenary Session of eighteen proposed comprehensive economic reform is focused on deepening the reform, the core issue is to deal with the relationship between government and the market, so the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources and better play the role of government, but did not mention specific economic policy.
2, investment growth fell slightly, industry slightly improved. January-October national fixed asset investment grew by 20.1%, the growth rate down 0.1 percentage points over January-September; has declined for two consecutive months. January to October the national real estate investment grew 19.2%, the growth rate down 0.5 percentage points over the January-September; land acquisition area and new construction area also showed real estate investment remained at a low level. January to October of traffic in fixed assets investment grew by 7.5%, growth rate down 1.2 percentage points over January-September. January to October the national railway infrastructure investment of 383.475 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%, the growth rate down 6.8 percentage points over January-September. Calculated in accordance with the annual 530 billion yuan target, only the first 10 months to complete 72% of the target, after two months of railway investment is still large room for growth. Overall, before the end of the investment will show a steady growth trend down slightly. China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
10 month is 51.4 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, picked up four consecutive months, 18 months to a new high since. More October-scale industrial added value increased 10.3 percent, up 0.1 percentage points compared with September. October industrial electricity consumption grew by 8.5%, compared rebounded in September, a record high since the second year. October car sales were completed 1,916,000 and 1,932,600, down 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively, an increase of 20.7 percent and 20.3 percent respectively over the previous year. October 7537 excavator industry sales units, an increase of 23.7%, growth of 8.9%. The above data show that the manufacturing sector is still smooth recovery, but with the slowdown in investment growth, manufacturing growth in coming months is difficult to have a big raise.
3, crude steel production fell slightly, late or will be picked up. National Bureau of Statistics, October domestic crude steel, pig iron and steel production was 65.08 million tons, 58.75 million tons and 92.81 million tons, an increase of 9.2%, 7.7% and 12.3%; average daily production of crude steel and steel, respectively 2.099 million tons and 2.994 million tons, a decline of 3.7% and 4% respectively. Steel Association statistics, the national crude steel production was 2.144 million tons, up 2.18 percent late mom. By the early impact of falling profits and environmental pressures, especially since October steel mills in North overhaul production increased significantly, resulting in crude steel production fell, easing the supply pressure of the market. November, although some steel into the annual maintenance, but with the steel mills started to rebound partially discontinued willingness to rise, steel production is expected to be picked up late.
4, raw materials market steadily, the cost of supporting a strong intensity. November iron ore, coke prices steady rise, up to 18, 62% of the price index for imported ore Platts quoted $ 136.75 / ton, compared with $ 132.25 by the end of September rose $ 4.5; Shanxi mainstream secondary metallurgical coke factory 1170 yuan / ton, compared with the end of October rose 30 yuan / ton. October, China imported 67.83 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 20.2%, a decrease of 9.1%; month iron ore import price $ 128.6 / ton, an increase of $ 2.4 / t. Recently, the steel mills in northern Dongchu rebound plus stocking demand for the release, iron ore and coke prices are expected to remain high.
5, demand for the coming season, or to the inventory of steel will gradually end. As of November 15, the social inventory of the nations major markets five varieties of 13,667,400 tons of steel, late last week to reduce 63,600 tons, representing an increase of 692,900 tons. Where the total inventory of 5,234,600 tons of rebar, last week by 41,800 tons, representing an increase of 64,500 tons; wire of the total inventory of 1,320,100 tons, 13,400 tons less than last week, representing an increase of 30,300 t; total inventory of 3,993,900 tons of hot-rolled, last week increased by 01,700 tons; cold rolling of the total inventory of 1,602,000 tons, 05,600 tons less than last week; plate inventory total of 1,516,800 tons, compared with the previous week to reduce 04,500 tons. Steel stocks fell this week, the National Social slowed down, thread and wire stock weekly decline of only 0.79% and 1.04%. As the weather cools, the national steel market into the consumer off-season demand, steel stocks will be gradually transferred to the rising channel.
6, leading steel prices steady downward. With the approaching end of the market demand remained weak, steel mills facing a lot of pressure sales, inventory, capital, etc., in order kicked upstairs pricing, offers, and other forms of makeup to attract traders and end-users to order. Baosteel December plate prices remain flat on some products to give preferential treatment, the sooner the individual species contract enjoy greater concessions; Wuhan in December, compared with the pricing policy drop out, respectively, of hot rolled coil, plate and other varieties by 50 yuan / ton; Shougang prices will remain stable. Anshan Iron and Steel expects a greater probability of ex-factory prices steady downward.