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Your current location :Home > News > December 2013 analysis of the steel market price trend forec

December 2013 analysis of the steel market price trend forec

December 2013 analysis of the steel market price trend forecast,a market review analyzes November domestic steel market as a whole showed a rising trend shocks. Early, the Third Plenum bring policies to improve the expected pressure for market resources, iron ore, steel billets and other raw material prices continue to rise, futures prices higher volatility, higher boost domestic steel market as a whole. Mid, the Third Plenum of the steel industry brought to the closing is not a clear positive signal, futures weaker again, after a rise downstream procurement Bora cautious, thinly traded spot market, prices pulled back slightly in most regional markets. As of the 20th, the Shanghai market three rebar prices 3580-3660 yuan / ton, late last month rose 140-160 yuan / ton, Shandong market price 3600-3620 yuan / ton, late last month, up 70 yuan / ton; Shanghai market heavy-gauge hot rolled prices 3460-3480 yuan / ton, late last month rose 20 yuan / ton, Shandong market price 3490-3520 yuan / ton, late last month rose 10 yuan / ton; East China market board price 3420-3450 yuan / t the end of the month flat; East market

Second, the market trend forecasting

10 月份 steady macroeconomic data, inflation rose slightly, slightly improved industrial data, but the infrastructure and real estate investment is beginning to show signs of slowing down in recent months. October average daily production of 2.099 million tons of crude steel, post or rise slightly. Demand season approaching, steel destocking or will gradually end. Raw materials market steadily, strong efforts to support the cost of steel. Cautious on the outlook leading steel prices steady downward. As the weather gets colder downstream demand weakened, the pressure will increase steel orders. Third Plenum of the market next year is not to bring positive expectations, the market appears difficult to hoard goods to be up prices last year, is expected to close with the end of tight funding, the domestic steel market will consolidate weaker.
Third, the domestic steel market factors run:

1, stable domestic economic growth, stable macroeconomic policy tight. October total electricity consumption grew by 9.5%, the growth rate narrowed 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. October, sending the national rail freight rose 6.0 percent, the average daily traffic volume growth of 1.8%. October CPI rose 3.2%, PPI down 1.5% year on year; October RMB loans increased by 506.1 billion yuan, an increase of 700 million yuan, a decrease of 280.9 billion yuan; Show inflation rose slightly but still controlled the central bank to control credit, maintain a neutral monetary policy tight. Third Plenary Session of eighteen proposed comprehensive economic reform is focused on deepening the reform, the core issue is to deal with the relationship between government and the market, so the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources and better play the role of government, but did not mention specific economic policy.
2, investment growth fell slightly, industry slightly improved. January-October national fixed asset investment grew by 20.1%, the growth rate down 0.1 percentage points over January-September; has declined for two consecutive months. January to October the national real estate investment grew 19.2%, the growth rate down 0.5 percentage points over the January-September; land acquisition area and new construction area also showed real estate investment remained at a low level. January to October of traffic in fixed assets investment grew by 7.5%, growth rate down 1.2 percentage points over January-September. January to October the national railway infrastructure investment of 383.475 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%, the growth rate down 6.8 percentage points over January-September. Calculated in accordance with the annual 530 billion yuan target, only the first 10 months to complete 72% of the target, after two months of railway investment is still large room for growth. Overall, before the end of the investment will show a steady growth trend down slightly. China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
10 month is 51.4 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, picked up four consecutive months, 18 months to a new high since. More October-scale industrial added value increased 10.3 percent, up 0.1 percentage points compared with September. October industrial electricity consumption grew by 8.5%, compared rebounded in September, a record high since the second year. October car sales were completed 1,916,000 and 1,932,600, down 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively, an increase of 20.7 percent and 20.3 percent respectively over the previous year. October 7537 excavator industry sales units, an increase of 23.7%, growth of 8.9%. The above data show that the manufacturing sector is still smooth recovery, but with the slowdown in investment growth, manufacturing growth in coming months is difficult to have a big raise.
3, crude steel production fell slightly, late or will be picked up. National Bureau of Statistics, October domestic crude steel, pig iron and steel production was 65.08 million tons, 58.75 million tons and 92.81 million tons, an increase of 9.2%, 7.7% and 12.3%; average daily production of crude steel and steel, respectively 2.099 million tons and 2.994 million tons, a decline of 3.7% and 4% respectively. Steel Association statistics, the national crude steel production was 2.144 million tons, up 2.18 percent late mom. By the early impact of falling profits and environmental pressures, especially since October steel mills in North overhaul production increased significantly, resulting in crude steel production fell, easing the supply pressure of the market. November, although some steel into the annual maintenance, but with the steel mills started to rebound partially discontinued willingness to rise, steel production is expected to be picked up late.
4, raw materials market steadily, the cost of supporting a strong intensity. November iron ore, coke prices steady rise, up to 18, 62% of the price index for imported ore Platts quoted $ 136.75 / ton, compared with $ 132.25 by the end of September rose $ 4.5; Shanxi mainstream secondary metallurgical coke factory 1170 yuan / ton, compared with the end of October rose 30 yuan / ton. October, China imported 67.83 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 20.2%, a decrease of 9.1%; month iron ore import price $ 128.6 / ton, an increase of $ 2.4 / t. Recently, the steel mills in northern Dongchu rebound plus stocking demand for the release, iron ore and coke prices are expected to remain high.
5, demand for the coming season, or to the inventory of steel will gradually end. As of November 15, the social inventory of the nations major markets five varieties of 13,667,400 tons of steel, late last week to reduce 63,600 tons, representing an increase of 692,900 tons. Where the total inventory of 5,234,600 tons of rebar, last week by 41,800 tons, representing an increase of 64,500 tons; wire of the total inventory of 1,320,100 tons, 13,400 tons less than last week, representing an increase of 30,300 t; total inventory of 3,993,900 tons of hot-rolled, last week increased by 01,700 tons; cold rolling of the total inventory of 1,602,000 tons, 05,600 tons less than last week; plate inventory total of 1,516,800 tons, compared with the previous week to reduce 04,500 tons. Steel stocks fell this week, the National Social slowed down, thread and wire stock weekly decline of only 0.79% and 1.04%. As the weather cools, the national steel market into the consumer off-season demand, steel stocks will be gradually transferred to the rising channel.
6, leading steel prices steady downward. With the approaching end of the market demand remained weak, steel mills facing a lot of pressure sales, inventory, capital, etc., in order kicked upstairs pricing, offers, and other forms of makeup to attract traders and end-users to order. Baosteel December plate prices remain flat on some products to give preferential treatment, the sooner the individual species contract enjoy greater concessions; Wuhan in December, compared with the pricing policy drop out, respectively, of hot rolled coil, plate and other varieties by 50 yuan / ton; Shougang prices will remain stable. Anshan Iron and Steel expects a greater probability of ex-factory prices steady downward.

一、市场回顾分析11月份国内钢市整体呈震荡上涨的走势.上旬,三中全会带来政策改善预期,市场资源压力不大,铁矿石、钢坯等原料价格持续攀升,期货价格震荡走高,推动国内钢市整体走高.中旬,三中全会闭幕未给钢铁行业带来明确利好信号,期货再度趋弱,经过一波拉涨后下游采购谨慎,现货市场成交清淡,多数地区市场价格小幅回调.截止20日,上海市场三级螺纹钢价格3580-3660元/吨,较上月末上涨140-160元/吨,山东市场价格3600-3620元/吨,较上月末上涨70元/吨;上海市场厚规格热卷价格3460-3480元/吨,较上月末上涨20元/吨,山东市场价格3490-3520元/吨,较上月末上涨10元/吨;华东市场中板价格3420-3450元/吨,较上月末基本持平;华东市场

二、市场走势预测

10月份宏观数据持稳,通胀小幅上升,工业数据略有改善,但基建和房地产投资近月开始呈现放缓迹象.10月份粗钢日均产量209.9万吨,后期或将小幅回升.需求淡季来临,钢材去库存或将逐步结束.原料市场稳中有升,钢价成本支撑力度较强.主导钢厂对后市谨慎价格稳中下调.随着天气逐渐变冷下游需求减弱,钢厂订单压力将加大.三中全会未给明年市场带来利好预期,市场难出现去年囤货待涨行情,预计随着年底临近资金趋紧,国内钢市将盘整趋弱.

三、影响国内钢市运行的因素:

1、国内经济增长平稳,宏观政策稳中偏紧.10月份全社会用电量同比增长9.5%,增速较上月收窄0.9个百分点.10月份全国铁路货物发送量同比增长6.0%,日均发送量环比增长1.8%.10月CPI同比增长3.2%,PPI同比降1.5%;10月份人民币贷款增加5061亿元,同比多增7亿元,环比减少2809亿元;显示通胀小幅上升但仍受控,央行控制信贷投放,维持中性偏紧的货币政策.十八届三中全会提出经济体制改革是全面深化改革的重点,核心问题是处理好政府和市场的关系,使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用和更好发挥政府作用,但未提具体的经济政策.

2、投资增速小幅回落,工业略有改善.1-10月全国固定资产投资同比增长20.1%,增速比1-9月回落0.1个百分点;已连续两个月回落.1-10月全国房地产开发投资同比增长19.2%,增速比1-9月回落0.5个百分点;土地购置面积和新开工面积也显示房地产投资维持在较低水平.1-10月我国交通固定资产投资同比增长7.5%,增幅比1-9月回落1.2个百分点.1-10月全国铁路基本建设完成投资3834.75亿元,同比增长5.7%,增速比1-9月回落6.8个百分点.按照全年5300亿元目标计算,前10月仅完成目标的72%,后两个月铁路投资仍有较大增长空间.总体来看,年底前投资增速将呈稳中小幅回落的趋势.

10月份中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为51.4%,比上月上升0.3个百分点,连续4个月回升,为18个月以来的新高.10月份规模以上工业增加值同比增长10.3%,较9月份上升0.1个百分点.10月份工业用电量同比增长8.5%,比9月份有所回升,创今年以来的次高.10月汽车产销分别完成191.60万辆和193.26万辆,比上月分别下降0.6%和0.2%,比上年同期分别增长20.7%和20.3%.10月份挖掘机行业销量7537台,同比增长23.7%,环比增长8.9%.以上数据显示制造业仍在平稳复苏,但随着投资增速的放缓,未来几个月制造业增速难有大的提高.

3、粗钢产量小幅回落,后期或将有所回升.国家统计局数据,10月份国内粗钢、生铁和钢材产量分别为6508万吨、5875万吨和9281万吨,同比分别增长9.2%、7.7%和12.3%;粗钢和钢材日均产量分别为209.9万吨和299.4万吨,环比分别下降3.7%和4%.钢协统计数据,全国粗钢日产为214.4万吨,旬环比涨2.18%.受前期利润下滑以及环保压力影响,10月以来钢厂尤其是北方钢厂检修减产明显增多,从而导致粗钢产量下滑,缓解了市场的供给压力.11月份,虽然部分钢厂进入年度检修,但随着钢价反弹部分停产钢厂开工意愿上升,预计后期钢铁产量将有所回升.

4、原料市场稳中有升,成本支撑力度较强.11月份铁矿石、焦炭价格稳中上涨,截至18日,62%进口矿普氏价格指数报价136.75美元/吨,比9月底的132.25美元上涨4.5美元;山西二级冶金焦主流出厂1170元/吨,较10月底上涨30元/吨.10月份我国进口铁矿石6783万吨,同比增加20.2%,环比减少9.1%;当月铁矿石进口均价为128.6美元/吨,环比增加2.4美元/吨.近期,钢价回升加上北方钢厂冬储备货需求释放,预计铁矿石及焦炭价格将高位运行.

5、需求淡季来临,钢材去库存或将逐步结束.截止11月15日,全国主要市场五大钢材品种社会库存量为1366.74万吨,较上周末减少6.36万吨,较去年同期增加69.29万吨.其中螺纹钢库存总量为523.46万吨,较上周减少4.18万吨,较去年同期增加6.45万吨;线材库存总量为132.01万吨,较上周减少1.34万吨,较去年同期增加3.03万吨;热轧库存总量为399.39万吨,较上周增加0.17万吨;冷轧库存总量为160.20万吨,较上周减少0.56万吨;中板库存总量为151.68万吨,较上周减少0.45万吨.全国钢材社会库存本周降幅明显趋缓,螺纹和线材库存周降幅仅为0.79%和1.04%.随着天气变冷,全国钢市需求进入消费淡季,钢材库存将逐步转入上升通道.

6、主导钢厂价格稳中下调.随着年底临近市场需求持续疲软,钢厂面临销售、库存、资金等诸多压力,在定价上以暗降、优惠、补差等形式,吸引贸易商和终端用户订购.宝钢12月份板材价格维持平盘,对部分产品给予优惠,个别品种越早签订合约享有越大的优惠;武钢12月份价格政策则为明降,分别对热轧板卷、中板等品种下调50元/吨;首钢价格维持平稳.预计鞍钢等钢企出厂价稳中下调的概率较大.