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2014 slightly warmer steel industry

recent years, Chinas steel industry downturn, overcapacity has been one of the problems plagued the development of the industry. However, the continued tightening of environmental policy has turned to the production of iron and steel industry, the prelude, coupled with sustained demand for the release of improved iron ore supply and demand, the industry is expected for next years steel industry has begun to improve.
capacity will strictly control

order to solve the overcapacity problem, go for the production of the various measures are being constantly introduced, environmentally friendly means of gradual tightening in particular from the steel industry to promote the long-term production.
year, domestic steel composite price index has remained at the bottom, there are 13 weeks during the year is less than 100 points, and in October, November consecutive months are lower than the level in April 1994 when the overall market continues weaknesses situation. In terms of crude steel production, however, after a fall in October, November remain stable, crude steel production rebounded. Currently, the countrys crude steel output remained at levels above 2.1 million tons, which means that there has been no substantial steel production.
this ongoing situation, or high-yield tightening environmental policy and with a difference. National emphasis on air pollution continues to strengthen, environmental supervision and steel high-polluting industries has improved significantly, some areas have been forced to start cleaning up excess capacity. To major steel-producing province Hebei Province, Tangshan region has more than a dozen have been shut down blast furnaces, affecting millions of tons of annual capacity. The industry is expected environmental pressures will cause the original plan in 2014 postponed or cease production of blast furnace, thereby reducing productivity growth.
China Steel Industry Association vice president Wang Qi said recently that next years planned production of iron and steel enterprises arrangement than about 2 percent growth this year, most companies do not increase, some companies also cut, only a few companies because new production capacity There are some incremental increase in steel production will not be much throughout.
the long term, China has raised the compression of the total steel production capacity of more than 80 million tons within five years, the country currently accounts for about 8% of steel production capacity. Obviously, to the production of iron and steel industry has become a long-term energy goals. Once implemented, the current overcapacity in the steel industry profit margins are too low, a positive impact.
next year is expected to slightly warmer

achieve profitability this year, Chinas steel industry, but the overall level of profitability is still low. Despite the profit situation of the industry will remain in a long time, but the industrys earnings expectations for next year has begun to improve.
Steel Association data show that January-October members of iron and steel enterprises realized a total profit of 12.97 billion yuan, representing a turnaround, but the sales profit margin of only 0.43%, deficit still amounted to 31.40%. After deducting investment income and other income from non-steel, iron and steel industry is still a loss.
However, steel prices are showing improved quarter by quarter earnings trend. Wind data show that in the first three quarters of this year listed steel enterprises achieved a total net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.851 billion yuan, a year earlier loss of 3.547 billion yuan. Compared with the second quarter net profit of 1.598 billion yuan of scale, third-quarter net profit of 2.121 billion yuan to upgrade.
in new capacity controlled, while steel prices as demand growth also provides support for improved profitability. According to the World Steel Association expects 2013 global steel consumption will be apparent volume grew 3.1% to 1.475 billion tons, an increase of 2.0% higher than 2012, 2014 will be further increased by 3.3 percent to 1.523 billion tons. Among them, the Chinese mainland will continue to grow by about 3% on a high base.
close to the peak in steel production, while steel prices affect the profits of iron ore, one of the factors that are gradually ushered supply peak. From the end of this year, four new mine 168 million tons of new capacity will be gradually put into the period. According to Societe Generale Securities estimates that in 2014 four new mines ore supply will reach about 1.3 million tons of iron ore supply and demand will be further improved.
It is based on production capacity, the needs and expectations of iron ore, the recent UBS Securities, SW, Galaxy Securities and other brokerages have on steel prices for next years performance given cautiously optimistic judgments. UBS Securities believes that 2014 steel production capacity will be significantly reduced, while demand growth will be above 7%, the industry is expected to begin to improve the structure of supply and demand, raw material supply side is also expected to help ease the pressure on the steel industry to improve profitability. SW, Galaxy Securities, said that to upgrade capacity and environmental rectify the long-term positive development from the steel industry.

近几年我国钢铁行业持续低迷,产能过剩一直是困扰行业发展的问题之一.不过,不断收紧的环保政策已经开启钢铁行业去产能化的序幕,再加上需求持续释放、铁矿石供需关系改善,业内对于明年钢铁行业的预期已经开始好转.

新增产能将严控

为了解决产能过剩难题,针对去产能化的各项措施正在不断出台,特别是逐渐收紧的环保手段将从中长期促进钢铁行业减产.

今年以来,国内钢材综合价格指数一直维持在底部,年内已有13周低于100点,且10月、11月连续两个月都低于1994年4月时的水平,整体市场继续呈现弱势的局面.但是从粗钢产量上看,在10月份出现回落后,11月继续保持平稳,粗钢日产水平有所反弹.目前,全国粗钢日产量仍然维持在210万吨以上的水平,这意味着钢厂并没有出现实质性减产.

这种持续高产的局面或随着环保政策的收紧而有所改观.国家对大气污染治理的重视程度不断加强,钢铁等高污染行业的环保监管力度明显提升,已经迫使部分地区开始清理过剩产能.以产钢大省河北省为例,唐山地区已经相继关停多座高炉,影响年产能上百万吨.业内预计,环保压力将导致原计划在2014年投产的高炉缓建或停建,进而降低产能增速.

中国钢铁工业协会副会长王晓齐近日表示,明年钢铁企业的计划产量安排将比今年增长2%左右,大部分企业都不增产,部分企业还要减产,仅有少量企业因为新产能投产有一定增量,钢材产量整个增幅不会太大.

从长期看,我国已经提出在五年内压缩8000万吨以上的钢铁产能总量,占目前全国钢铁产能的8%左右.显然,钢铁业的去产能化已成为长期目标.一旦落实,对于目前产能过剩、利润率过低的钢铁行业都是积极影响.

明年预期略回暖

今年我国钢铁行业实现扭亏为盈,但整体盈利水平仍在低位.尽管全行业仍会在较长时间内保持微利局面,但业内对于明年的盈利预期已开始有所好转.

中钢协数据显示,1-10月份会员钢铁企业累计实现利润为129.70亿元,同比扭亏为盈,但销售利润率仅为0.43%,亏损面仍达31.40%.在扣除投资收益和其他非钢收入后,钢铁主业仍是亏损状态.

尽管如此,钢企盈利正呈现逐季好转的态势.Wind数据显示,今年前三季度上市钢企共实现归属于母公司股东的净利润58.51亿元,而去年同期则亏损35.47亿元.与第二季度15.98亿元的净利润规模相比,第三季度的净利润提升到21.21亿元.

在新增产能受控的同时,需求增长也为钢企盈利好转提供了支持.根据国际钢协的预计,2013年全球钢材表观消费量将同比增长3.1%至14.75亿吨,增幅高于2012年的2.0%,2014年将进一步增长3.3%,达到15.23亿吨.其中,中国大陆将在高基数上继续增长3%左右.

在钢产量接近峰值的同时,影响钢企利润因素之一的铁矿石正逐步迎来供应高峰期.从今年年底开始,四大矿山新建1.68亿吨新产能将逐步进入投放期.据兴业证券估算,2014年四大矿山的新增矿石供应量将达到约1.3亿吨,铁矿石供需关系将进一步好转.

正是基于对产能、需求及铁矿石的预期,近期瑞银证券、申银万国、银河证券等券商纷纷对钢企明年的表现给出了谨慎乐观的判断.瑞银证券认为,2014年钢铁新增产能将大幅减少,而需求增速将在7%以上,行业供需结构有望开始改善,原材料供给端的压力缓解也有望帮助钢铁行业盈利改善.申银万国、银河证券则表示,去产能及环保整顿升级将从中长期利好钢铁行业的发展.,2014 slightly warmer steel industry.