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2014 Steel Market Policy Analysis

2014 Steel Market Policy Analysis,steady growth, adjusting structure, promoting reform was in 2014 Chinas three major focus of macroeconomic regulation and control. The above three macro-economic stabilization and recovery from China at different levels to promote. Expected annual GDP growth rate of 8% or higher than the 3013 growth levels. Under its influence, the national steel demand conditions or better than 2013, especially large growth in imports, the price level is relatively stable throughout the year, not a sharp fall situation.
a still active fiscal policy

due to the instability of the global economic recovery, as well as the basis of domestic economic growth, demand for power is not very strong, will continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy in the new year to provide funding support for the realization of the purchasing power of more than 7 percent economic growth target . Specifically, the new pro-active fiscal policy within a year, mainly as appropriate to expand the size of the deficit and increase the national debt. Expected to include local government bonds, including the central, national scale deficit of about 1.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 2% of GDP. At the same time, the tax will be stable. Capital flows, fiscal policy, mainly to peoples livelihood, environmental protection and other aspects tilted in favor of increased raw material of steel and smelting coke, ore, scrap steel and other commodities demand.
two neutral partial width of the actual operation of monetary policy

new year China to tighten monetary policy neither, nor relax, decision-makers adhere to the "prudent" neutral operation, but in fact the money supply is likely neutral to slightly loose, not tight. This is not only because the domestic capital growth requires relatively loose monetary policy, but also because the world, especially the extremely loose monetary policy in developed countries to continue, including the Fed to solve the financial difficulties continue to transform the form of a large printing press, not really substantive quit. " QE ". Even exit, is a slow long process for several years, at least in the year 2014 will not completely withdraw monetary easing.
In this environment, but also because the RMB interest is too high, foreign "hot money" will inevitably continue the influx of domestic, forcing the central bank to release foreign exchange RMB% of the corresponding section. According to Hai Xin steel analyst learned that in October 2013 the new foreign exchange all financial institutions 441.6 billion yuan, growth of 2.5 times during the year, the second highest on record.
if the world compete to devalue the currency, "hot money" Immigration is too turbulent, is bound to increase pressure on the RMB interest rate cuts. Although the Fed will not easily quit "QE", but if the U.S. economy recovered strongly in the new year, the Fed really quit "QE", increased demand for hedging of U.S. dollar assets, causing a lot of money out of the Chinese market, the central bank is bound to "RRR" to ensure "steady growth" capital requirements. So actually more relaxed monetary supply, help the steel market heating up.
three, restructuring, strengthen environmental protection investment policy

economic restructuring and energy saving and environmental protection, will be an important regulatory tasks in 2014. In order to achieve reasonable economic structure adjustment, increase saving and environmental protection, and strengthen the weak short board division, also need to increase investment in fixed assets to achieve. And increase the pace of reform, some areas abolition of administrative examination and approval, the introduction of private capital, relying on market allocation of resources, will provide new impetus to investment. 2014 China is expected to commence construction investment will in many aspects of energy-saving and environmental protection, urban and rural infrastructure, traffic, public services, residential and so on. Construction of the above aspects of large scale. 2014 total fixed asset investment over 55 trillion yuan, the growth rate of nominal investment of around 20%. Such a huge investment in construction, is bound to inspire a huge amount of demand for steel.
Fourth, efforts to increase housing supply in the property market policy

In recent years, Chinas major cities, especially in first-tier cities housing prices continued to rise so that, in addition to the cost (including the cost of government revenue) to improve the outside, one important aspect is obviously inadequate housing supply, it is difficult to meet the rigid requirements of the general population and needs to improve. For this reason, the idea of ??market regulation authorities are transformed by the past simple amendment to curb speculative housing supply and curb speculation increased simultaneously, with greater efforts to increase housing supply to meet the growing demand rigidity, especially first-tier cities housing rigid demand, and the introduction of local government performance goals. The State Council held a meeting recently to require local governments to ensure the realization of housing construction targets, so as to promote the construction of residential construction.
five, backward production capacity was inhibited release of industrial policy

year, the National Environmental concern has improved significantly in 2014 to increase the energy efficiency and environmental protection, will become an important goal of macro-control. And in the new year to increase the energy saving efforts, in particular to strengthen the enforcement of environmental protection, the steel market can have a positive impact on two aspects. One is forced
steel industry chain enterprises to increase investment in environmental protection, resulting in a general increase in environmental costs. For example, preliminary estimates, if the steel industry chain (mining, coking, steel, rolled products, etc.) necessary for environmental costs, eventually accumulate to the finished steel, environmental costs per ton of steel increased by at least $ 500, even if the 2014 environmental law enforcement only 20% increase in the intensity of the countrys crude steel environmental costs will increase by 100 yuan / ton. According to estimates, the strict enforcement of environmental protection, the actual cost of domestic iron ore increased to 120 U.S. dollars / ton, thus forming a large market to support prices. In addition to the environmental costs, other cost factors in the new year, the steel industry, logistics costs, energy costs, labor costs, also tend to improve.
two backward production release is inhibited, will help to improve the supply and demand relationship. Mentioned here backward production capacity, mainly refers to the high pollution and high energy capacity, it is estimated that some capacity will not be too small in proportion to full capacity in. If the new year can be strict enforcement of environmental protection departments, then part of the pollution, too much energy is released backward steel production capacity will inevitably be greatly inhibited, but also conducive to improving the supply and demand.
due to several aspects of these major regulatory policy environment, Haixin steel mesh steel market analysts expect China to continue to moderate upward trend during the year 2014, total crude steel demand throughout the year (including direct exports, the same below) reached or more than 840 million tons, an increase of more than 5%, of which exports of crude steel direct and indirect exports continue to live tonnes; National Statistics crude steel production will reach 820 million tons, an increase of about 5% over the previous year, if not taken into account into the statistics of production, actual crude steel production will more likely be closer to 850 million tons. Thus boost iron ore imports rose by more than 8%; steel prices overall rose about 2%. Market prices continue to ascend, will make the enterprise inventory revaluation, the situation improved efficiency.