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2014 Steel Market Policy Analysis

2014 Steel Market Policy Analysis,steady growth, adjusting structure, promoting reform was in 2014 Chinas three major focus of macroeconomic regulation and control. The above three macro-economic stabilization and recovery from China at different levels to promote. Expected annual GDP growth rate of 8% or higher than the 3013 growth levels. Under its influence, the national steel demand conditions or better than 2013, especially large growth in imports, the price level is relatively stable throughout the year, not a sharp fall situation.
a still active fiscal policy

due to the instability of the global economic recovery, as well as the basis of domestic economic growth, demand for power is not very strong, will continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy in the new year to provide funding support for the realization of the purchasing power of more than 7 percent economic growth target . Specifically, the new pro-active fiscal policy within a year, mainly as appropriate to expand the size of the deficit and increase the national debt. Expected to include local government bonds, including the central, national scale deficit of about 1.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 2% of GDP. At the same time, the tax will be stable. Capital flows, fiscal policy, mainly to peoples livelihood, environmental protection and other aspects tilted in favor of increased raw material of steel and smelting coke, ore, scrap steel and other commodities demand.
two neutral partial width of the actual operation of monetary policy

new year China to tighten monetary policy neither, nor relax, decision-makers adhere to the "prudent" neutral operation, but in fact the money supply is likely neutral to slightly loose, not tight. This is not only because the domestic capital growth requires relatively loose monetary policy, but also because the world, especially the extremely loose monetary policy in developed countries to continue, including the Fed to solve the financial difficulties continue to transform the form of a large printing press, not really substantive quit. " QE ". Even exit, is a slow long process for several years, at least in the year 2014 will not completely withdraw monetary easing.
In this environment, but also because the RMB interest is too high, foreign "hot money" will inevitably continue the influx of domestic, forcing the central bank to release foreign exchange RMB% of the corresponding section. According to Hai Xin steel analyst learned that in October 2013 the new foreign exchange all financial institutions 441.6 billion yuan, growth of 2.5 times during the year, the second highest on record.
if the world compete to devalue the currency, "hot money" Immigration is too turbulent, is bound to increase pressure on the RMB interest rate cuts. Although the Fed will not easily quit "QE", but if the U.S. economy recovered strongly in the new year, the Fed really quit "QE", increased demand for hedging of U.S. dollar assets, causing a lot of money out of the Chinese market, the central bank is bound to "RRR" to ensure "steady growth" capital requirements. So actually more relaxed monetary supply, help the steel market heating up.
three, restructuring, strengthen environmental protection investment policy

economic restructuring and energy saving and environmental protection, will be an important regulatory tasks in 2014. In order to achieve reasonable economic structure adjustment, increase saving and environmental protection, and strengthen the weak short board division, also need to increase investment in fixed assets to achieve. And increase the pace of reform, some areas abolition of administrative examination and approval, the introduction of private capital, relying on market allocation of resources, will provide new impetus to investment. 2014 China is expected to commence construction investment will in many aspects of energy-saving and environmental protection, urban and rural infrastructure, traffic, public services, residential and so on. Construction of the above aspects of large scale. 2014 total fixed asset investment over 55 trillion yuan, the growth rate of nominal investment of around 20%. Such a huge investment in construction, is bound to inspire a huge amount of demand for steel.
Fourth, efforts to increase housing supply in the property market policy

In recent years, Chinas major cities, especially in first-tier cities housing prices continued to rise so that, in addition to the cost (including the cost of government revenue) to improve the outside, one important aspect is obviously inadequate housing supply, it is difficult to meet the rigid requirements of the general population and needs to improve. For this reason, the idea of ??market regulation authorities are transformed by the past simple amendment to curb speculative housing supply and curb speculation increased simultaneously, with greater efforts to increase housing supply to meet the growing demand rigidity, especially first-tier cities housing rigid demand, and the introduction of local government performance goals. The State Council held a meeting recently to require local governments to ensure the realization of housing construction targets, so as to promote the construction of residential construction.
five, backward production capacity was inhibited release of industrial policy

year, the National Environmental concern has improved significantly in 2014 to increase the energy efficiency and environmental protection, will become an important goal of macro-control. And in the new year to increase the energy saving efforts, in particular to strengthen the enforcement of environmental protection, the steel market can have a positive impact on two aspects. One is forced
steel industry chain enterprises to increase investment in environmental protection, resulting in a general increase in environmental costs. For example, preliminary estimates, if the steel industry chain (mining, coking, steel, rolled products, etc.) necessary for environmental costs, eventually accumulate to the finished steel, environmental costs per ton of steel increased by at least $ 500, even if the 2014 environmental law enforcement only 20% increase in the intensity of the countrys crude steel environmental costs will increase by 100 yuan / ton. According to estimates, the strict enforcement of environmental protection, the actual cost of domestic iron ore increased to 120 U.S. dollars / ton, thus forming a large market to support prices. In addition to the environmental costs, other cost factors in the new year, the steel industry, logistics costs, energy costs, labor costs, also tend to improve.
two backward production release is inhibited, will help to improve the supply and demand relationship. Mentioned here backward production capacity, mainly refers to the high pollution and high energy capacity, it is estimated that some capacity will not be too small in proportion to full capacity in. If the new year can be strict enforcement of environmental protection departments, then part of the pollution, too much energy is released backward steel production capacity will inevitably be greatly inhibited, but also conducive to improving the supply and demand.
due to several aspects of these major regulatory policy environment, Haixin steel mesh steel market analysts expect China to continue to moderate upward trend during the year 2014, total crude steel demand throughout the year (including direct exports, the same below) reached or more than 840 million tons, an increase of more than 5%, of which exports of crude steel direct and indirect exports continue to live tonnes; National Statistics crude steel production will reach 820 million tons, an increase of about 5% over the previous year, if not taken into account into the statistics of production, actual crude steel production will more likely be closer to 850 million tons. Thus boost iron ore imports rose by more than 8%; steel prices overall rose about 2%. Market prices continue to ascend, will make the enterprise inventory revaluation, the situation improved efficiency.

稳增长、调结构、促改革,是2014年中国宏观调控的三大着力点.上述三方面宏观调控,从不同层面推动中国经济企稳回升.预计全年GDP增速或达到8%,高于3013年增长水平.受其影响,全国钢材需求状况或好于2013年,尤其是进口较多增长,全年价格水平相对稳定,不会出现大幅跌落局面.

一、依然积极的财政政策

由于全球经济复苏的不稳定性,以及国内经济增长的需求动力基础尚不十分稳固,新一年内还将继续实施积极的财政政策,为实现7%以上的经济增长目标提供资金购买力支持.具体而言,新一年内积极的财政政策,主要表现为适当扩大财政赤字与增加国债规模.预计包括中央代地方发债在内,全国财政赤字规模在15000亿元左右,占GDP的比重约为2%.与此同时,还将稳定税收.财政政策的资金流向,主要向民生、环保等方面倾斜,有利于增加钢材及冶炼原料焦炭、矿石、废钢等商品需求.

二、中性操作实际偏宽的货币政策

新一年内中国货币政策既不收紧,也不放松,决策层坚持“稳健”的中性操作,但实际上的货币供应有可能中性偏松,而非偏紧.这不仅由于国内保增长需要相对宽松的货币政策,还因为全球,尤其是发达国家极度宽松货币政策的继续,也包括美联储为解决财政困难,变换形式继续大量印钞,不会真正实质性退出“QE”.即便退出,也是一个缓慢长、长达数年的过程,至少在2014年内不会完全退出货币宽松.

在这个大环境下,又因为人民币利息太高,境外“热钱”不可避免地继续大量涌入国内,逼迫央行相应释放外汇人民币占款.据海鑫钢网分析师了解到,2013年10月全部金融机构新增外汇占款4416亿元,环比增长2.5倍,为年内次高纪录.

如果世界各国竞相贬值货币,“热钱”入境过于汹涌,势必加大人民币降息压力.虽然美联储不会轻易退出“QE”,但如果新一年内美国经济强劲复苏,美联储真的退出“QE”,美元资产避险需求增加,引发大量资金流出中国市场,央行势必“降准”,确保“稳增长”的资金需求.因此实际上较为宽松的货币供应,有利于钢材市场升温.

三、调整结构、加强环保的投资政策

调整经济结构与节能环保,将是2014年的重要调控任务.而要实现国民经济结构合理调整,加大节能环保力度,加强短板薄弱部门,也都需要增加固定资产投资来实现.而加大改革步伐,一些领域取消行政审批,引进民间资本,依靠市场配置资源,将会提供投资新动力.预计向2014年中国建设投资将会在节能环保、城乡基础设施、交通道路、民生服务、居民住宅等多个方面展开.上述几个方面的建设规模庞大.预计2014年全社会固定资产投资超过55万亿元,名义投资增长率20%左右.如此规模巨大的投资建设,势必激发数量巨大的钢材需求.

四、努力增加住房供应的楼市政策

近些年来,中国主要城市,特别是一线城市住房价格所以持续上涨,除了成本(包括政府税收成本)提高之外,一个重要方面在于住房供应明显不足,难以满足普通居民的刚性需求与改善性需求.为此,有关部门正在变换楼市调控思路,由以往单纯抑制投机修正为增加住房供应与抑制投机并举,以更大力度增加住房供应,满足不断增长的刚性需求,尤其是一线城市住房刚性需求,并引入地方政府考核目标.前不久国务院召开会议,要求地方政府确保住宅建设目标的实现,从而推动住宅施工建设.

五、落后产能释放受到抑制的产业政策

今年以来,全国环保关注度明显提高,预计2014年加大节能环保,将成为宏观调控的重要目标.而新一年内加大节能环保力度,尤其是加强环保执法,对于钢材市场可以产生两个方面的积极影响.

一是逼迫钢铁全产业链企业加大环保投入,致使环保成本普遍提高.比如初步测算,如果钢铁全产业链(采矿、炼焦、炼钢、轧材等)的必要环保费用,最后都累积到成品钢材上,每吨钢材至少增加环保成本500元,即使2014年环保执法只提高20%的力度,全国粗钢环保成本也将增加100元/吨.另据测算,严格环保执法后,国内铁矿石际成本升高至120美元/吨以上,从而对价格行情形成很大支撑.除了环保成本外,新一年内钢铁行业的物流成本、能源成本、工资成本等其它成本因素也都趋向提高.

二是落后产能释放受到抑制,有利于改善供求关系.这里所说的落后产能,主要是指高污染与高耗能的产能,估计这部分产能在全部产能中所占比例不会太小.如果新一年内有关部门能够严格环保执法,那么部分污染严重、耗能过多的落后钢铁产能释放,势必受到很大抑制,也有利于改善供求关系.

由于上述几个个方面大的调控政策环境的影响,海鑫钢网分析师预计2014年内中国钢材市场继续温和回升态势,全年粗钢需求总量(含直接出口,下同)达到或超过8.4亿吨,增幅在5%以上,其中粗钢直接出口量与间接出口量继续过亿吨;全国粗钢统计产量将达到8.2亿吨,比上年增长5%左右,如果考虑到未纳入统计的产量,实际粗钢产量将会更多,有可能接近8.5亿吨.从而拉动铁矿石进口增幅超过8%;钢材价格总体涨幅在2%左右.市场价格继续扬升,将会使得企业库存升值,效益情况获得改善.