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Your current location :Home > News > Global steel market outlook and the impact of raw materials

Global steel market outlook and the impact of raw materials

Global steel market outlook and the impact of raw materials to China,? Asia-Pacific steel costs remain at the level of 500 U.S. dollars / ton, the highest costs in Germany, which can reach the level of 600 U.S. dollars / ton, India and Russia is only $ 400 / ton.
? iron ore market: Interim oversupply, prices faced downward pressure, in 2016 the average price of $ 85 / t

CFR; Long-term supply gap needs to be filled in order to balance the market; currently tightening capital expenditures in 2020 will determine the size of the size of the supply gap; least 100 U.S. dollars / ton CFR prices to stimulate new projects to balance the market supply

? coking coal prices from the current level of $ 152, and slowly increase to a level of $ 180

one, causes low-margin steel industry

1. raw material prices

According 伍德麦肯兹 cost model, since 2005, by the impact of rising raw material prices, operating cash cost of steel production has grown a fold.
steel production costs in 2005 and 2006 was only $ 280 / t and $ 290 / t, but in 2011 has risen to 560-570 U.S. dollars / ton. Although since 2011 has been to reduce the cost of steel, but still higher than in 2005 and 2006, compared with 70%.
mainly by the price rise of raw materials, including the cost of iron ore, coking coal and scrap. In the past three or more of the total cost of steel production accounts for less than 60% the proportion, but in 2011 this proportion had risen to more than 75%. Currently this proportion dropped to 67%.
2. changing trends in other countries like China are also costs, but the cost of steel itself is due to country-specific.
such as steel cost trends in Northeast Asia, Japan and South Korea in line with the Chinese. But the cost is the highest in Japan, followed by South Korea, and China after Chinas lowest cost.
but is expected to cost differences between steel and Japan will shrink. Mainly because China will import more iron ore, Chinas dependence on maritime market will further increase. At the same time, Chinas rising labor costs is one of the reasons.
steel manufacturing costs are also significant differences between countries. Such as India and Russia to benefit from its own mines iron ore market, it is both relatively low cost. In contrast, the German steel costs by low capacity utilization, high labor costs and the impact of high dependence on imported raw materials and is located highest in the world.
Overall, Asia-Pacific steel costs remained at $ 500 / t. But other areas, such as Germany, the highest cost of steel, which can reach the level of 600 U.S. dollars / ton. In the lower cost of steel in India and Russia, and its level of only 400 U.S. dollars / ton.
3. due to oversupply, lack of pricing power producer

Although steel costs surge, but the manufacturer failed steel companies have not successfully transferred to the rising cost of downstream producers. This is mainly caused by the excess capacity.
huge difference in prices of raw materials and finished steel prices. This is clearly showing weak steel producers on pricing, but it did not smooth the rising steel costs transferred to the terminal consumers. It rests caused by excess capacity. In the role of excess capacity, any increase in steel prices will be offset by excess supply. Data
伍德麦肯兹 steel production capacity database shows: Currently, Chinas crude steel production capacity has more than 1 billion tons / year. Expects Chinas crude steel production in 2013 was around 770 million to 7.8 million tons. The data show that capacity utilization is only 77%.
assume that Chinas steel manufacturers can achieve the level of capacity utilization and South Korea or Japan, or 90%, then the estimated productivity of idle about 143 million tons, this figure is much higher than any of the United States, Japan and South Korea productive capacity of a country.
4. profits of the steel industry has been greatly squeezed
finished steel margins
steel manufacturers in the past few years, the report showed a sharp decline, several steel companies such as shown in the figure, net profit after tax, depreciation and amortization of interest, these companies, including ArcelorMittal, TKS,

Nucor, Gerdau and Russias NLMK, interest tax, depreciation and amortization, net profit after they have a very significant decline.
However, the sharp decline in China is more obvious: Chinas key steel enterprises reported a net profit of 8% from 2004 dropped almost to the level of the current is almost zero.
two, iron ore and coking coal market outlook

1. Chinas future iron ore supply come from?

where miners occupied the mainstream majority of future growth in the amount of supply. Within five years of maritime supply will grow 435 million tons. Interim conservative forecast of new supply will be outside the mine blowout occurs. By 2017, the mine will occupy the top four increments of 67%. The key risk is that non-mainstream miner fails to make expansion!
is worth mentioning that this prediction has been considered a decline in exports volume: India (-1800 tonnes); Southeast Asia (-2200 tonnes); CIS (-1500 tonnes); Iran (-1080 Wan t); United States (-550 tons).
to 2017 the composition of growth in supply

2. ore price outlook

Interim: oversupply, prices faced downward pressure, in 2016 the average price of $ 85 / t CFR (based on 2013 real prices).
term: prices will drop, but not deep down
!
long: the need to fill the supply gap, in order to balance the market; currently tightening capital expenditures in 2020 will determine the size of the size of the supply gap; least $ 100 / t CFR (real $ 2013) price to encourage new projects to balance the market Live

big wave "supply Tide" hit

3. coking coal prices have nearly cost curve

international price of coking coal from BHP Billiton after the beginning of the quarter to set prices began to rise. But it reaches the highest value in the second quarter of 2011, up to $ 330 per ton. Mainly due to the flood disaster in Queensland region. After this, coking coal prices have dropped to about a quarter of the $ 145 per ton. Basically fallen by more than half! On a longer time scale, the rise in the price of coking coal, mainly due to the push coal costs. Each vertex of falling prices has cost support. The same year we saw after coking coal prices dropped to $ 145 per ton, has been close to the marginal cost producers. After that, we see coking coal prices gradually rise. In the fourth quarter, coking coal prices began to rise to $ 152 / ton.
metallurgical coal prices have fallen below the marginal cost of the world

4. in the short term, we expect metallurgical coal prices will gradually recover.
coking coal prices from the current level of $ 152, and slowly grow to the level of $ 180. Accordingly, other metallurgical coal prices will also have a corresponding increase.
three, cost pressures will decrease

1. driven slowdown in iron ore and scrap

伍德麦肯兹 forecast iron ore prices will continue to decline in the medium term. However, coking coal prices will rise at the current level.
iron ore costs will fall, but the impact of the decline in the price of different countries are very different: the smaller the impact on countries such as USA and Russia monopolized the domestic supply of iron ore supply side; their China, Japan, South Korea and Germany, a strong dependence on iron ore country greater impact.
Also, you can see that the cost of coking coal / charcoal rise from the current level. However, compared with the decline in the cost of iron ore, coking coal, coke costs rise will be relatively small. If we rise smaller coking coal, coke and decrease the cost of a large iron ore costs into account, the cost of hot metal will decline. We expect the cost
alternatives as molten iron scrap / pig iron will fall.
the above information into account, is expected to be finished steel prices decline.
2. mills cost pressures will be partially released

Thus, the expected volatility of steel smelting costs will become increasingly flat.
projected 2013 average cost of finished steel is about 501 U.S. dollars / ton, compared with 2012 decreased by 6%, in 2014 there will be a 2.4% decline. As previously described above, the expected price of steel will continue because of excessive supply capacity while maintaining relatively stable.
3. Steel margins increased slightly

because steel prices will remain stable, lower costs, so there will be a slight rise in profits on steel.
can be foreseen, Germany, China, United States and Japan steel margins will rise in 2013. But the situation is not the same for each country, Japan would benefit from increased industrial concentration, more conducive to the profits of the steel industry.
four, suggested Chinese companies concerned about their balance sheets

mass production, low profits of the high leverage makes some Chinese steel industry to an unhealthy direction. At very low margins expanded production, has led to a very high throughout the steel industrys financial leverage. As the government continued to subsidize
state-owned steel companies, the entire market in the production - the profit relationship disorders. Even if profit is close to 0, the production is still high growth.
which production is carried out at a very low profit situation, which resulted in high leverage Chinas steel industry. The gearing ratio
whole industry from the past to the present growth of 50% to 70%. This is only a country level, but strictly speaking, some steel companies nearing bankruptcy. Even more frightening is that the loan, the proportion of short-term debt increased rapidly in the last three years, the high pressure steel enterprises financing.

亚太区钢材成本维持在500美元/吨的水平,成本最高的德国,其可达到600美元/吨的水平,印度和俄罗斯仅为400美元/吨.

铁矿市场:中期供大于求,价格面临下行压力,2016年平均价格85美元/吨

CFR;长期需要填补供应缺口,以平衡市场;目前资本支出紧缩规模将决定2020年后供应缺口的大小;至少需要100美元/吨 CFR的价格以激励新的项目来平衡市场供应

主焦煤的价格将从目前的152美元的水平,慢慢地增长到180美元的水平

一、钢铁行业低利润的成因

1. 原材料价格上涨

根据伍德麦肯兹的成本模型,自2005年至今,受原材料价格上升的影响,钢材生产过程的运营现金成本已增长1倍.

钢材生产成本在2005年和2006年仅为280美元/吨和290美元/吨,但是在2011年已上涨至560到570美元/吨.虽然自2011年来钢铁成本已有降低,但是与2005、2006年相比仍高出70%.

这主要是由原材料的价格上升,其中包括铁矿石,焦煤和废钢的成本.以上三者在过去占钢材生产总成本的比例还不足60%,然而这个比例在2011年已上升到75%以上.目前这一比例下降到67%.

2. 其他国家成本的变化趋势也类似于中国,但是钢铁成本本身是因国而异的.

比如东北亚,日本和韩国的钢铁成本变化趋势与中国一致.但是日本的成本是最高的,之后依次为韩国和中国,中国的成本最低.

但是预计中日之间的钢铁成本差异将缩小.主要是因为中国将进口更多的铁矿,中国对海运市场的依赖将进一步增加.与此同时,中国的劳动力成本的升高也是原因之一.

钢铁制造成本在各国之间亦存在显著差异.比如印度和俄罗斯的铁矿石市场受益于自有矿山,所以两者的成本比较低.相比之下,德国的钢铁成本受低产能利用率,高劳动力成本和对进口原材料的高依赖性的影响而位于全球最高之列.

总的来说,亚太区钢材成本维持在500美元/吨的水平.但是其它地区,比如钢铁成本最高的德国,其可达到600美元/吨的水平.而在钢铁成本较低的印度和俄罗斯,其水平仅为400美元/吨.

3. 由于供应过剩,生产者缺乏定价能力

虽然钢铁成本激增,但是钢铁企业生产商却没没有能成功将升高的成本转移给下游生产商.这主要是由产能过剩导致的.

原材料价格与成品钢材价格的巨大差异.这明显呈现出钢铁生产者在定价上的弱势,而且其并没能顺利把上升的钢铁成本向终端使用方转移.这皆由过剩的产能所导致.在过剩产能的作用下,任何钢铁价格的上升都将被过剩的供给所抵消.

伍德麦肯兹钢厂产能数据库中的数据显示:目前中国的粗钢生产能力已超过10亿吨/年.预计中国2013年的粗钢产量约为7.7亿~7.8亿吨左右.这一数据表明产能利用率仅达77%.

假设中国的钢铁厂家的产能利用率能达到与韩国或日本的水平,即90%,那么预估闲置的生产力大约为1.43亿吨,这一数据远高于美国、日本和韩国的任何一国的生产能力.

4. 钢铁行业的利润被大大挤压

钢铁厂家报告的成品钢材边际利润在过去几年呈现出急剧下降的情况,比如图中所示的几家钢铁企业扣除折旧摊销的息税后利润,这些企业包括ArcelorMittal、TKS、

Nucor、Gerdau以及俄罗斯的NLMK,它们的扣除折旧摊销后的息税后利润都有非常明显的下降.

然而,这种急剧下降的情况在中国更为明显:中国重点钢铁企业报告的净利润从2004年的8%几乎下降至目前的几乎为0的水平.

二、铁矿石和焦煤市场展望

1. 中国未来铁矿石供应从哪里来?

其中,主流矿商占据未来大部分的供应增长量.在5年之内海运供应量将增长4.35亿吨.保守预测中期外矿新增供应量将出现井喷.到2017,前4大矿山将占据67%的增量.关键的风险在于,非主流矿商未能如期扩产!

值得一提的是,这一预测已经考虑了出口下降量:印度(-1800万吨);东南亚(-2200万吨);独联体(-1500万吨);伊朗(-1080万吨);美国(-550万吨).

到2017年增长供应量的组成

2. 铁矿石价格展望

中期:供大于求,价格面临下行压力,2016年平均价格$85/t CFR(基于2013的真实价格).

中长期:价格会下降但不会深跌!

长期:需要填补供应缺口,以平衡市场;目前资本支出紧缩规模将决定2020年后供应缺口的大小;至少需要$100/t CFR (real 2013$)的价格以激励新的项目来平衡市场供应

大波“供应潮”袭来

3. 焦煤价格已经接近成本曲线

国际主焦煤的价格从必和必拓开始设定季度价格后,开始上升.但是这在2011年第二季度到达最高值,高达330美元每吨.主要由于昆士兰地区的特大洪水灾难.这之后,主焦煤价格一路下降到今年一季度的145美元每吨左右.基本上跌去一半还多!在更长的时间范围上来看,焦煤价格的上升,主要是由于煤矿成本的推动.每次价格下降的顶点都有成本支撑.同样的今年我们看到焦煤的价格下降到145美元每吨后,已经靠近边际生产商的成本.这之后,我们看到焦煤价格逐渐回升.第四季度,主焦煤的价格开始回升到152美元/吨.

冶金煤价格已经跌破了全球的边际成本

4. 在中短期内,我们预计冶金煤的价格将逐渐恢复.

主焦煤的价格将从目前的152美元的水平,慢慢地增长到180美元的水平.相应的,其他的冶金煤价格也将有相应的增加.

三、成本压力将减小

1. 铁矿石和废钢驱动放缓

伍德麦肯兹预测的铁矿石价格在中期内将继续下降.但是焦煤的价格将会在目前水平上上涨.

铁矿石的成本将下降,但是这一价格的下降对不同国家的影响是很不同的:其对美国俄罗斯等铁矿石供给被国内供给方垄断的国家的影响较小;其对中国,日本,韩国和德国等对铁矿石依赖较强的国家影响较大.

同时,也可以看到焦煤/炭的成本将从目前水平上升.但是与铁矿石成本的下降幅度相比,焦煤、焦炭成本的上升幅度会比较小.如果我们将上升幅度较小的焦煤、焦炭成本与下降幅度较大的铁矿石成本综合考虑,铁水的成本将下降.

我们预计作为铁水替代品的废钢/生铁的成本也将下降.

将以上信息综合考虑,预计成品钢材的价格会因此下降.

2. 钢厂的成本压力将得到部分释放

由此,预计钢铁冶炼成本的波动会日趋平缓.

预计2013年的成品钢材的平均成本约为501美元/吨,与2012年相比下降了6%,2014年还将有2.4%的下降幅度.正如之前所阐述的那样,钢材的预期价格仍将因为过度的供给能力而维持较平稳.

3. 钢铁利润率将轻微上升

因为钢材价格维持平稳,成本降低,所以钢材利润上会有小幅度的上涨.

可以预见,德国,中国,美国和日本的钢材边际利润在2013年将会上升.但各个国家情况不太一样,日本将受益于产业集中度的提高,更有利于钢铁行业的利润.

四、建议中国企业关注自己的资产负债表

大量生产、低利润带来的高杠杆使得一些中国钢铁业向不健康的方向发展.在极低的利润下扩张生产,已经导致整个钢铁行业一个极高的财务杠杆率.

由于政府对国有钢铁企业的持续补贴,整个市场在生产-利润关系上是失调的.即使利润接近0,生产仍在高速增长.

而这些生产是在利润极低的情况下进行,这造成了中国钢铁行业的高杠杆率.

整个行业的总资产负债率从过去的50%高速增长至目前的70%.这仅是一个国家水平,但从严格意义上讲,某些钢铁企业已接近破产.更可怕的是,贷款中,短期债务的比例在最近三年内迅速上升,钢铁企业的融资压力很高.