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Your current location :Home > News > Steel City will usher in a phased release of Xu

Steel City will usher in a phased release of Xu

According to statistics showed that: this year Chinas steel industry overall operational situation is extremely serious, total assets-liability ratio close to 70%, has entered the high-risk areas; reduction in long-term loans and short-term borrowings increased, indicating that steel has entered the "feel the burn, Gu front "position; accounts receivable increased significantly, indicating that because the market is not good," owes "aspects of bad debt may increase; financial expenses, selling expenses increased, indicating a substantial growth in sales costs, far more than saving management costs.
steel spot prices from the recent trend, the national steel prices since mid-September, the sharp rebound in mid-November to regain decline (see left), predicted in November industries or relapse into a loss situation, 12 In early February steel prices on low-cost, can hardly be reversed. Although the steel market continues to weaken, but to see both from the economic side, whether it is the real economy or the export side, the economic situation in our country change for the better, with the gradual recovery in the latter part of our economy, after the consolidation, Chinas steel demand is still there a greater chance to get released.
First, in terms of expectations, rating agency Moodys recently released report, the steel industrys outlook remained stable in Asia, especially in Chinas demand. In the report, Moodys Vice President and Senior Credit Officer expects Chinese demand for steel in 2013 will be increased by 2% -4%. The recently approved infrastructure projects are to be implemented, with modest growth in exports, which will be the main factors driving the demand for the release.
in my background of serious excess of domestic exports to ease domestic production of steel has become too big to release an important way. Dec. increasingly closer, but with the advent of Christmas and New Years Day and other holidays, the market demand at home and abroad, there will be further increased. The situation in respect of rail freight has also continued to improve, the real economy continues to improve. From the long-term point of view, next year with the steady recovery in the U.S. and other countries economy and domestic reform measures launched or will directly increase the pace of development of the real economy next year.
followed downstream aspects of the country, "Chinas economic development model is still labor-intensive, manufacturing-based, and the development of the manufacturing sector needs resources, raw materials and the need for inter-regional flows of goods, and therefore growth, especially railway sources increase in coal, oil and other products can directly reflect the amount of transport economy, the supply increased economic development entity means the entity to pass out to the good signal.

urban rail construction, recently there are part of the project approval in advance, five-city rail planning another breakthrough. And with many of the citys subway project this year approved in advance, or even next year there will still be plenty of projects licensed in the entire five-year plan to achieve identified 3,000 km of urban rail transit operators nationwide mileage, it is expected to rise to 4000 breakthrough km, which gave the market hope.
whole, regardless of the current economic situation, export, or downstream economy, gave a more optimistic market expectations, but the logistics released November manufacturing PMI is in line ups and downs, which are In the display of the real economy is strong, therefore, we expect a positive factor in the promotion of multi-party, after the shock will usher in the domestic steel market or demand for the release of the stage.

据数据统计表明:今年我国钢铁行业的总体运营情势极其严峻,总资产负债率接近70%,已进入高风险区域;长期借款减少,而短期借款增加,说明钢厂已经进入“火烧眉毛,顾眼前”的境地;应收账款大幅增加,表明由于行情不好,“人欠”方面的坏账可能增加;财务费用、销售费用增加,说明促销费用的大幅增长,已经远远超过节约的管理费用.

从近期钢材现货价格走势看,全国钢材价格自9月中旬起的大幅反弹,到11月中旬的重拾跌势(见左图),预测11月份行业或将重陷亏损境地,12月份钢价在前期的低价位上,难言反转.虽然目前钢市继续走弱,但是从经济面俩看,不管是实体经济还是在出口方面,我国经济形势都在转好,后期随着我国经济的逐渐复苏,在盘整过后,我国钢材需求还是有较大的机会得到释放的.

首先,在预期方面,近日评级机构穆迪发布报告称,亚洲钢铁业的展望依然稳定,尤其是中国的需求.在报告,中穆迪副总裁兼高级信用评级主任预计,中国对钢铁的需求在2013年将同比增长2%-4%.而近期获批的基础设施项目也得以落实,加上出口温和增长,这些将会是推动需求释放的主要因素.

在我国产能严重过剩的背景下,出口成了缓解国内产能钢铁释放过大的重要途径.12月份日益近了,而且随着圣诞以及元旦等节假日的到来,国内外的市场需求都会有进一步的增多.而我国铁路货运形势方面也在持续好转,实体经济发展持续向好.从远期来看,明年随着美国等国家经济的稳步回升,以及国内陆续推出的改革措施,或将直接提高明年实体经济的发展速度.

其次是在国内下游方面, “我国经济发展模式依然是劳动密集型,以制造业为主,而制造业的发展需要资源、原材料以及商品需要跨区域流动,因而铁路货源的增长尤其是煤、石油等产品运输量的增加能够直接反映出实体经济运行情况,货源增加则意味着实体经济发展传递出向好信号.

城轨建设方面,近日又有部分项目审批提前,十二五城市轨道规划再突破.而且随着今年不少城市的地铁项目提前获批,明年甚至仍然会有大量的项目获得许可,在整个十二五规划确定实现3000公里的全国城市轨道交通运营里程,更是有望突破上Steel City will usher in a phased release of Xu,升到4000公里左右,这些都给市场带来了希望.

综合来看,当下的经济形势不管是出口,还是下游经济方面,都给了市场较乐观的预期,而且中物流公布的11月制造业PMI都是处于荣枯线上的,这些都在显示我国实体经济正在走强,因此,我们预计,在多方利好因素的推动下,震荡过后国内钢材市场或会迎来阶段性的需求释放期.