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Iron and steel industry in December 2013 Monthly

inevitable decline in real estate investment, infrastructure investment remained stable external economic recovery helped steady recovery in the manufacturing sector, the manufacturing PMI adopted in mid-November with the previous month, the overall macroeconomic stable. Nov. Steel City is not short off-season, steel and ore prices rose steadily, industry profitability improved slightly. Steel industry coming season, December supply and demand situation is basically stable, dealers and end-users will be launched Dongchu, industry fundamentals are expected to continue to improve slightly, we judge Dec. steel prices rose 3 percent less likely to have, the ore price increase in 5% or less. Steel industry fundamentals may be slightly better, but the lack of overall investment opportunities, maintaining a "hold" rating. Relatively optimistic about the oil and gas pipes, ductile iron pipe and other sub-sectors leading companies.
12 Record Investment portfolio: Yulong shares, long-established special materials, Jinzhou pipeline, Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes, a large steel square.
10 average daily crude steel output fell sharply, end demand gradually into the off-season

10 average daily crude steel output fell sharply, steel exports increased slightly qoq. Focus on steel prices steel stocks hit during times higher steel inventories declined for eight consecutive weeks. Shanghai market share in monthly terminal pileare MoM increase significantly. Downstream demand chain fell slightly in October, November the traditional off-season demand hardly improved significantly.
longs stronger than sheet metal, ore prices is stronger than steel, Dec. steel ore prices will rise slightly

dynamic longs prices rose by 1-2%, plate chain fell 1 percent - rose 1 percent, the monthly average price rose about 1% and a decrease of approximately 0-2%, respectively; within ore price dynamics rose 2.51% outside the mine rose 2.26 percent, the monthly average rose 1.47 percent and 0.80 percent respectively. November although the steel industry the traditional low season, but with environmental regulatory policy tightening around the various regulations gradually fall, on the one hand makes the average daily production of crude steel in October dropped significantly, on the other hand can enhance the production environment to a certain extent market confidence, Nov. Steel City is not short off-season pattern. Currently generally stable macroeconomic, monetary policy is more robust, December advent season steel industry, the industry supply and demand situation is basically stable, but Dongchu behavior mills, dealers and end-userIron and steel industry in December 2013 Monthly,s will continue, industry fundamentals may be a slight improvement is expected in December Steel prices may rise 3% or less, ore prices may rise less than 5%.
11 月份 steel industry profitability improved slightly in December to a slight improvement in profit or

10 months, the medium-sized steel enterprises realized sales income of 299.581 billion yuan, down 2.16%; realized a total profit of 2.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 38.15%, total profit in investment income and other income share is still great. Industry profitability improved slightly in November, December steel, ore prices are expected to rise slightly, the industry is likely to continue to improve profitability. Various sub-sectors, oil and gas pipelines and ductile iron pipe will benefit from the decline in steel and ore prices. On the specific variety, by the end of November 2013 the gross profit per ton of steel long products 17-71 yuan / ton, per ton of other varieties losses 161-299 yuan / ton. Risk Warning: lower than expected demand and restocking; environmental capacity to less than expected; industry risks.

房地产投资下滑不可避免,基建投资保持稳定,外围经济复苏有助制造业平稳回升,11月中采制造业PMI与上月持平,宏观经济总体保持平稳.11月份钢市淡季不淡,钢价和矿价稳中有升,行业盈利略有改善.钢铁行业淡季来临,12月份供需形势基本稳定,经销商和终端用户的冬储将陆续展开,行业基本面有望继续小幅改善,我们判断12月份钢价可能有3%以内的涨幅,矿价涨幅在5%以内.钢铁行业基本面可能小幅好转,但缺乏整体性投资机会,维持“持有”评级.相对看好油气输送管、球墨铸管等子行业龙头公司.

12月份投资组合:玉龙股份、久立特材、金洲管道、新兴铸管、方大特钢.

10月粗钢日均产量大幅回落,终端需求逐渐步入淡季

10月粗钢日均产量大幅回落,钢材出口量环比小幅增长.重点钢企钢材库存创年内次高,钢材社会库存连续八周下降.上海市场终端线螺采月购量环比显著增加.下游需求十月环比略有回落,十一月传统淡季需求难有显著改善.

长材强于板材,矿价强于钢价,12月钢矿价仍将小幅上涨

长材价格动态环比上涨1-2%,板材环比下跌1%-上涨1%,月均价环比分别上涨约1%和下跌约0-2%;内矿价格动态环比上涨2.51%、外矿上涨2.26%,月均价环比分别上涨1.47%和0.80%.11月虽是钢铁行业传统淡季,但随着各地环保监管政策趋紧,各项法规逐渐落地,一方面使得10月全国粗钢日均产量显著回落,另一方面环保去产能在一定程度上增强了市场信心,11月钢市呈现淡季不淡的格局.目前宏观经济总体平稳,货币政策较为稳健,12月份钢铁行业淡季来临,行业供需形势基本稳定,但钢厂、经销商和终端用户的冬储行为将持续,行业基本面可能小幅改善,预计12月份钢价可能有3%以内的涨幅、矿价可能有5%以内的涨幅.

11月份钢铁行业盈利略有好转,12月份盈利或将小幅改善

10月份,大中型钢铁企业实现销售收入2995.81亿元,环比下降2.16%;实现利润总额20.20亿元,环比减少38.15%,利润总额中投资收益和其他收入占比依然很大.11月份行业盈利略有改善,12月份钢价、矿价有望小幅上涨,行业盈利能力可能持续改善.各子行业来看,油气输送管和球墨铸管将受益于钢价和矿价的下跌.就具体品种而言,2013年11月底长材吨钢毛利17-71元/吨,其他品种吨钢亏损161-299元/吨.风险提示:需求和补库存低于预期;环保去产能不及预期;行业亏损风险.