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Your current location :Home > News > Research report in November Chinese steel prices still have

Research report in November Chinese steel prices still have

? deadline 25th October steel prices fluctuated amid downward trend, composite steel price index fell last month to the 25th of 1.28%. Sub-varieties, Long Product Price Index fell 0.86 percent, flat steel price index fell 1.77 percent. Iron ore prices are showing a trend of differentiation, iron ore price index edged up last month on the 25th 0.29%, ? ore prices fell by 1.78% domestic ore prices rose by 1.13%, in line with expectations last month. Iron and steel market, "Golden September and Silver October," nothing. Prospects November steel, pressure worries kept, but the downside is limited, and some decline in larger areas, some species may occur at any rally driven by favorable, mainly as follows: ? ? ? ? 11 biggest iron, steel market pressure from the steel inventory remains high. ? According to statistics, in early October steel stocks 13.5 million tons, still in this years high level. And in September the countrys crude steel output 65.42 million tons, an increase of 11 percent, a record first ?, average daily production of 2.18 million ton, an increase of 2%. In mid-October the countrys crude steel production 2.1 million tons, a decline of only 1%. According to Mysteel survey, 163 steel blast furnace utilization rate 90.63%, a slight decrease of 0.26 percent than the previous week, shows that the short-term supply pressure continues unabated. This year, the demand for good, steel inventories continued to decline to a lower level, the rebound in steel prices is difficult, one very important reason is that steel stocks are always at a relatively high level. Mainly in, one to traders and end sends a signal, do not worry about not buy goods, and thus mills ? always difficult to transfer to traders and hands terminal; Second mills have no confidence in driving prices, whether it is the price of time, or the time of loss. November, steel high inventory is still difficult to melt, it is more of the reason is the northern mill scale on a higher level, and now their own maintenance, production intensity is not enough; followed relatively tight money, high cost, traders Tun Cargo enthusiasm to get up; Again this year,Temporary Fencing "North timber south," the pressure is huge. 2011 winter, the southern traders Zhunhuo, 2012 spring and summer, the southern market prices have been lifted up. 2012 winter, when everyone expected a rise, the South had not Zhunhuo ? or Tuen some, but a lot of material transferred to the east, a few months after the Spring Festival in 2013, the steel prices continued to fall, resulting in the past few years, "North timber south" to bring the painful lessons of the majority of traders believe that they will be in operation this year, more cautious traders in the north, the more miserable in the winter storage may be more cautious. From the demand, better than November October difficult situation. In mid-October survey data, infrastructure and real estate investment demand does not seem optimistic, HSBC new orders data is only better than 09 and 12 years, in the low position of the calendar year. Export orders edged up only 0.1, external demand siResearch report in November Chinese steel prices still have some space search screen information centuation has not significantly changed. Three days before the end of October 6 ? coal electricity generation increased Group Speed ??hit the lowest level since April. Therefore, the steel supply will be the greatest short-term negative factors weighed on the market. ? ? ? ? price pressure outside the mine highlights, Steel prices may drive completed last fall. ? 9 months, outside the mine with respect to the price of steel, it is much to be strong, both showed a very significant departure from the trend, in general, steel prices go either up or down the rate of reduction ore, or both to change with varying degrees, reduce the degree of deviation . From the current situation, due to the downturn in the steel market confidence, the outer steel ore prices are still pulling down, and therefore the cost of supporting the role of steel, and will weaken in the short term, but once the steel prices continued to fall, loss widened bound driven into the steel ? lower prices, affecting both alternating maybe there last fall. In addition, due to the significant increase in the amount of foreign minerals, port stocks also appeared significantly increased, as of October 25, weekly chain increased 2.76 million tons. Expected to post inventory will continue to show growth, therefore, Crimped wire mesh outside the mine prices have 5-10 dollars decline. ? ? ? ? larger macroeconomic risks uncertainties may be greater than bullish bearish. ? Domestically, first local debt findings will soon be published, in any case, I believe that is bad, even the total amount of the debt did not expect so much; Secondly, the funds will also show tight situation on ? intensive steel industry to speaking, not a good thing; Also, prices continued to rise sharply, triggering a new regulation is expected; Again, stimulated by the policy is expected to bring the macro and micro economy rising phase or short-term peak, either from the watch industry survey data, or from Keqiang index, appears to fall into the growth phase. From an international perspective, the euro zone October composite PMI fell to 52.2 from 51.5 in September, the United States in October PMI initial record lows this year, down to 51.1, which returned to the contraction of output, down to 49.5. ? ? However, due to steel price near the bottom of the last two years (from the lowest point last year, and only a thin 50 and 100 yuan, respectively), the social stock continued downward, with the southern region ? construction is still relatively busy, not exclude some areas, some species also have the opportunity to rebound, especially if the Third Plenary Session of the eighth to bring good, or environmental pressure leads to increased steel production efforts are likely to drive a larger area or more species rebound. ? ? ? short, ? 11 月 steel spot market, I believe that, despite the macroeconomic data is acceptable, but the short-term pressure to increase the supply of steel, ore and steel prices deviate outside funding is tight, market confidence remains in the doldrums, there should be a fall in steel prices. However eighth plenary meeting was held soon, in some areas at a relatively low position of some varieties steel, can ignite up, to see the rhythm of adjustment, or in mid-November. ? ? ? ? Risk Warning: environment variable , perspectives change.